Match Info

Lega A - Round 29

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Cittadella dello Sport (Tortona)

Referee: Cassina F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	LBA TV


	Derthona Basket Tortona		Basket Brescia

	1	2
			Watch
	1.78	1.95	Watch
	1.85	1.97
	1.83	1.93	Watch
	1.83	2
	1.81	2.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.8)	1.98 ↑ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 174.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derthona Basket Tortona
52.1%

Basket Brescia
47.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

48.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

45.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derthona Basket Tortona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Basket Brescia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derthona Basket Tortona than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Basket Brescia than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	14.3%	85.7%

Derthona Basket Tortona - Basket Brescia Predictions

Users Predictions: Basket Brescia will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 88:88

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
4. Gorham J.	2. Bilan M.
5. Manjon E.	8. Della V. A.
17. Olejniczak D.	18. Ivanovic N.
12. Strautins A.	9. Ndour M.
1. Vital C.	23. Rivers D.
Substitutes
11. Baldasso T.	15. Bordiga A.
19. Biligha P.	10. Burnell J.
7. Chapman B.	25. Cournooh D.
3. Hubb P.	3. Ferrero G.
6. Pecchia A.	21. Mobio J.
25. Riismaa J.	55. Nunn J.
9. Tandia L.	7. Santinon M.
Coaches
. Fioretti M.	. Cotelli M.

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Lega A (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Lega A (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tortona won 1.

Tortona has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Brescia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Tortona won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 1001:1097. (average 77:84.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Tortona won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 295:336. (average 73.8:84).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
10	Tortona	2	1	1	171:201	2

Last Results with these Odds

Derthona Basket Tortona - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.22%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derthona Basket Tortona
Italian Lega A Basketball
26.04.26	Reggiana - Derthona Basket Tortona	88:69 ✺
19.04.26	Derthona Basket Tortona - Virtus Bologna	69:74 ✺
12.04.26	Derthona Basket Tortona - Basket Trento	103:84 ✺
04.04.26	Treviso Basket - Derthona Basket Tortona	91:86 ✺
28.03.26	Varese - Derthona Basket Tortona	97:87 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLWLL
- Basket Brescia
Italian Lega A Basketball
26.04.26	Basket Brescia - Treviso Basket	90:99 ✺
19.04.26	Trieste - Basket Brescia	82:86 ✺
11.04.26	Venezia - Basket Brescia	74:89 ✺
04.04.26	Basket Brescia - Napoli Basket	100:85 ✺
29.03.26	Basket Brescia - Reggiana	92:101 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Lega A Basketball
11.01.26	Basket Brescia - Derthona Basket Tortona	92:86
Italian Cup Basketball
12.02.25	Basket Brescia - Derthona Basket Tortona	86:79
Italian Lega A Basketball
19.01.25	Basket Brescia - Derthona Basket Tortona	98:106 OT
17.11.24	Derthona Basket Tortona - Basket Brescia	78:85
06.04.24	Basket Brescia - Derthona Basket Tortona	72:65
05.11.23	Derthona Basket Tortona - Basket Brescia	59:87
Italian Lega A Super Cup Basketball
23.09.23	Basket Brescia - Derthona Basket Tortona	86:63

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