Match Info

NCAA

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday


	East Tennessee State Buccaneers		Mercer Bears

	1	2
	1.32	3.5
	1.32	3.15
	1.32	3.13	Watch
	1.3	3.4
	1.34	3.23
	1.26	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.37)	3.4 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 149.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

East Tennessee State Buccaneers
72.2%

Mercer Bears
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.8%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.9%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

East Tennessee State Buccaneers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in East Tennessee State Buccaneers's performance.

Mercer Bears has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mercer Bears might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for East Tennessee State Buccaneers than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mercer Bears than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

East Tennessee State Buccaneers - Mercer Bears Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 78:72

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, East Tennessee State won 4.

East Tennessee State has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mercer is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mercer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Mercer has had a series of away games.

In this match, East Tennessee State is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, East Tennessee State won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 1379:1305. (average 69:65.3).

Including home matches between the teams, East Tennessee State won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 776:747. (average 70.5:67.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- East Tennessee State Buccaneers basketball
NCAA College Basketball
30.12.25	Citadel Bulldogs - East Tennessee State Buccaneers	49:74 ✺
20.12.25	East Tennessee State Buccaneers - Jacksonville State Gamecocks	75:81 ✺
16.12.25	North Carolina Tar Heels - East Tennessee State Buccaneers	77:58 ✺
12.12.25	Austin Peay Governors - East Tennessee State Buccaneers	76:75 ✺
05.12.25	East Tennessee State Buccaneers - South Alabama Jaguars	91:65 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLLLW
- Mercer Bears basketball
NCAA College Basketball
31.12.25	Furman Paladins - Mercer Bears	74:72 ✺
20.12.25	Washington State Cougars - Mercer Bears	84:78 ✺
17.12.25	UCF Knights - Mercer Bears	81:63 ✺
13.12.25	Clemson Tigers - Mercer Bears	70:63 ✺
02.12.25	Mercer Bears - Georgia State Panthers	78:67 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

NCAA College Basketball
26.02.25	East Tennessee State Buccaneers - Mercer Bears	59:58
08.01.25	Mercer Bears - East Tennessee State Buccaneers	68:70
31.01.24	Mercer Bears - East Tennessee State Buccaneers	49:54
03.01.24	East Tennessee State Buccaneers - Mercer Bears	80:69
25.01.23	Mercer Bears - East Tennessee State Buccaneers	71:67 OT
14.01.23	East Tennessee State Buccaneers - Mercer Bears	55:68
16.02.22	Mercer Bears - East Tennessee State Buccaneers	65:56

East Tennessee State Buccaneers - Mercer Bears: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide