Match Info

Basket Liga - Round 11

Date: 12 December 2025, Friday

Location: Hala Widowiskowo-Sportowa Aqua Zdroj (Walbrzych)

Referee: Krzemien A. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	Polsat Sport 3, Polsat Sport Extra 4


	Górnik Wałbrzych		Legia Warsaw

	1	2
	1.67	2.1
	1.48	2.35	Watch
	1.57	2.4
	1.58	2.27	Watch
	1.62	2.1
	1.59	2.24
	1.62	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.97)	2.24 ↑ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 159.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Górnik Wałbrzych
58.5%

Legia Warsaw
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

53.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

54.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Górnik Wałbrzych has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Górnik Wałbrzych's performance.

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Legia Warsaw might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Górnik Wałbrzych than the current prediction. (-13.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Górnik Wałbrzych that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+13.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Legia Warsaw could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Górnik Wałbrzych - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5, OT - Górnik Wałbrzych (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Górnik Wałbrzych (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Górnik Wałbrzych will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Górnik Wałbrzych will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Górnik Wałbrzych (votes: 14 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 81:81

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
7. Garcia M.	5. Tomaszewski W.
22. Jogela T.	25. Thompson R.
91. Wyka D. (C)	42. Ponsar C.
24. Marchewka K.	0. Graves J.
0. Cabbil Jr L.	11. Shungu B.
Substitutes
15. Anderson A.	1. Czapla B.
40. Benson B.	21. Dabrowski J.
41. Kulka G.	40. Hunter S.
16. Lapeta A.	2. Niedzialkowski D.
25. Puchalski M.	32. Wilczek M. (C)
3. Smith I.
Coaches
. Adamek A.	. Rannula H.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Górnik Wałbrzych won 1.

Górnik Wałbrzych has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Legia is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Górnik Wałbrzych has had a series of away games.

Legia could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Górnik Wałbrzych will win today's game, with odds of 2.18.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Górnik Wałbrzych won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 502:545. (average 71.7:77.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Górnik Wałbrzych won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 294:319. (average 73.5:79.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Górnik Wałbrzych Basketball
Polish Basket Liga
07.12.25	King Wilki Morskie Szczecin - Górnik Wałbrzych	64:77 ✺
22.11.25	Dąbrowa Górnicza - Górnik Wałbrzych	79:96 ✺
16.11.25	Asseco Prokom Gdynia - Górnik Wałbrzych	85:69 ✺
08.11.25	Górnik Wałbrzych - GTK Gliwice	90:81 ✺
31.10.25	MOSiR Krosno - Górnik Wałbrzych	86:70 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWLWL
- Legia Warsaw Basketball
Polish Basket Liga
06.12.25	Legia Warsaw - Trefl Sopot	78:88 ✺
23.11.25	Legia Warsaw - Dziki Warszawa	79:84 ✺
Champions League Basketball
18.11.25	Legia Warsaw - Rytas	77:79 ✺
Polish Basket Liga
14.11.25	Śląsk Wrocław - Legia Warsaw	98:84 ✺
09.11.25	Zielona Góra - Legia Warsaw	71:88 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Basket Liga
22.05.25	Górnik Wałbrzych - Legia Warsaw	85:94 OT
20.05.25	Górnik Wałbrzych - Legia Warsaw	64:74
16.05.25	Legia Warsaw - Górnik Wałbrzych	59:62
14.05.25	Legia Warsaw - Górnik Wałbrzych	86:55
17.04.25	Górnik Wałbrzych - Legia Warsaw	72:79
Polish Cup Basketball
13.02.25	Górnik Wałbrzych - Legia Warsaw	73:72
Polish Basket Liga
20.12.24	Legia Warsaw - Górnik Wałbrzych	81:91

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