Match Info

AdmiralBet ABA League - Losers stage - Round 3

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Hala Tivoli (Ljubljana)

Referee: Kruljac B. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Slovenia	Arena Sport 1


	Ilirija		FMP Beograd

	1	2
	1.7	2.08
	1.71	2.16
	1.68	2.06	Watch
	1.67	2.05
	1.71	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 (1.69)	2.1 ↑ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 170.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilirija
55.4%

FMP Beograd
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

46.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilirija has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

FMP Beograd has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilirija than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ilirija, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FMP Beograd than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for FMP Beograd, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ilirija - FMP Beograd Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:84

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Green W.	88. Barna F.
35. Kures L.	14. Gasic N.
51. Marjanovic B.	11. Radosavljevic D.
8. Muric E.	22. Stanojevic A.
9. Tomazic T.	10. Stefanovic L.
Substitutes
55. Boisa L.	5. Eugene C.
11. Faganel L.	8. Grojic P.
13. Jurkovic R.	19. Malesevic F.
4. Padjen M.	6. Radovanovic M.
30. Popovic P.	0. Rebraca F.
6. Skorjanc G.	2. Scott J.
23. Vukotic T.	89. Skraban B.
Coaches
. Modric S.	. Nikitovic A.

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 11).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

FMP may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Ilirija has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Ilirija will win today's game, with odds of 1.72.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KD Ilirija
Adriatic League
07.03.26	Krka - Ilirija	72:71 ✺
03.03.26	KK Split - Ilirija	107:112 OT ✺
Slovenian Cup Basketball
16.02.26	Cedevita Olimpija - Ilirija	115:81 ✺
Slovenian Liga Basketball
10.02.26	Ilirija - Polzela	93:91 ✺
Adriatic League
07.02.26	Bosna - Ilirija	78:93 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 LWLWW
- KK FMP Beograd
Adriatic League
07.03.26	Spartak Subotica - FMP Beograd	77:73 ✺
Serbian Korac Cup
19.02.26	Partizan Belgrade - FMP Beograd	95:90 OT ✺
Adriatic League
15.02.26	FMP Beograd - Mega Basket	102:87 ✺
08.02.26	Studentski Centar - FMP Beograd	72:73 ✺
02.02.26	FMP Beograd - Borac Čačak	73:82 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLWWL

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