Match Info

AdmiralBet ABA League - Round 16

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Hala Tivoli (Ljubljana)

Referee: Rebeusek A. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Slovenia	Arena Sport 2


	Ilirija		Mega Basket

	1	2
	1.6	2.22
	1.59	2.37
	1.56	2.27
	1.57	2.25
	1.58	2.42
	1.57	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.69)	2.3 ↑ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 174.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilirija
59.3%

Mega Basket
40.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

46.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilirija has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Mega Basket has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilirija than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ilirija that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mega Basket than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mega Basket could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ilirija - Mega Basket Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 89:85

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Green W.	3. Dulovic A.
35. Kures L.	35. Gacic L.
51. Marjanovic B.	8. Kroflic U.
8. Muric E.	1. Luc K.
9. Tomazic T.	6. Markovic B.
Substitutes
55. Boisa L.	5. Drezgic S.
3. Gabrijel B.	77. Musicki A.
13. Jurkovic R.	4. Radojicic V.
4. Padjen M.	11. Siby A.
14. Raykov R.	23. Srzentic O.
6. Skorjanc G.	19. Suigo L.
23. Vukotic T.	7. Vukcevic M.
Coaches
. Modric S.	. Avdalovic V.

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ AdmiralBet ABA League (Losers stage: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ AdmiralBet ABA League (Losers stage: )).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Mega Basket may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

We predict that Ilirija will win today's game, with odds of 1.71.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ilirija won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 83:109.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KD Ilirija
Slovenian Liga Basketball
21.01.26	Šenčur - Ilirija	84:104 ✺
18.01.26	Zlatorog Laško - Ilirija	68:108 ✺
Adriatic League
11.01.26	Spartak Subotica - Ilirija	104:86 ✺
Slovenian Liga Basketball
07.01.26	Ilirija - Helios Suns Domžale	94:83 ✺
Adriatic League
04.01.26	Ilirija - Crvena Zvezda	74:91 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLWL
- Mega Basket
Adriatic League
18.01.26	Bosna - Mega Basket	94:83 ✺
05.01.26	Mega Basket - Vienna Basket	100:98 ✺
26.12.25	KK Budućnost - Mega Basket	100:82 ✺
21.12.25	Mega Basket - Cedevita Olimpija	72:90 ✺
12.12.25	Mega Basket - KK Zadar	90:89 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Adriatic League
31.10.25	Mega Basket - Ilirija	109:83

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