Match Info

AdmiralBet ABA League - Round 14

Date: 12 January 2026, Monday

Location: Dvorana KK Split (Split)

Where to Watch on TV:


Slovenia	Arena Sport 2


	KK Split		FMP Beograd

	1	2
	1.65	2.12
	1.6	2.19	Watch
	1.67	2.05
	1.66	2.24	Watch
	1.57	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.76)	2.17 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 171.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KK Split
57.1%

FMP Beograd
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

48.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KK Split has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in KK Split's performance.

FMP Beograd has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and FMP Beograd might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KK Split than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with KK Split that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FMP Beograd than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that FMP Beograd could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

KK Split - FMP Beograd Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5, OT - Split (1.75) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +0.5 - Split (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: KK Split will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): KK Split will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Split (votes: 5 - 83.3%). FMP (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 87:85

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Dreznjak D.	88. Barna F.
5. Jordano A.	5. Eugene C.
0. Myers T.	15. Ojiako J.
1. Sikiric A.	2. Scott J.
33. Stephens J.	22. Stanojevic A.
Substitutes
30. Dragic Z.	14. Gasic N.
25. Jemo R.	8. Grojic P.
10. Kucic V.	11. Radosavljevic D.
55. Marinelli P.	0. Rebraca F.
6. Perasovic I.	89. Skraban B.
11. Svoboda N.	10. Stefanovic L.
2. Wiggins D.
Coaches
. Repesa D.	. Nikitovic A.

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ AdmiralBet ABA League (Losers stage: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AdmiralBet ABA League (Losers stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Split won 1.

Split has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

FMP is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Split may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, FMP has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Split won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 891:964. (average 81:87.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Split won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 412:407. (average 82.4:81.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KK Split
Croatian Premijer Liga Basketball
09.01.26	Alkar - KK Split	87:97 ✺
06.01.26	KK Split - Virtus Zagreb	90:82 ✺
Adriatic League
04.01.26	KK Split - Dubai	78:92 ✺
28.12.25	Partizan Belgrade - KK Split	110:74 ✺
22.12.25	U BT Cluj-Napoca - KK Split	105:87 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 WWLLL
- KK FMP Beograd
Adriatic League
03.01.26	U BT Cluj-Napoca - FMP Beograd	93:65 ✺
20.12.25	FMP Beograd - Igokea	69:85 ✺
14.12.25	FMP Beograd - Partizan Belgrade	79:91 ✺
07.12.25	FMP Beograd - KK Split	96:80 ✺
22.11.25	FMP Beograd - U BT Cluj-Napoca	98:104 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Adriatic League
07.12.25	FMP Beograd - KK Split	96:80
14.04.25	KK Split - FMP Beograd	72:85
13.12.24	FMP Beograd - KK Split	98:91 OT
29.01.24	KK Split - FMP Beograd	78:66
27.10.23	FMP Beograd - KK Split	84:66
20.01.23	KK Split - FMP Beograd	91:95
17.10.22	FMP Beograd - KK Split	90:73

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