Match Info

National League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday


	Kaspiy Aktau		Almaty

	1	2
			Watch
	1.13	5.5
	1.33	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.33)	4.25 ↑ (3)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kaspiy Aktau
77.6%

Almaty
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.3%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.6%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kaspiy Aktau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kaspiy Aktau's performance.

Almaty has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Almaty might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kaspiy Aktau than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kaspiy Aktau that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almaty than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Almaty could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
8. Ivanov V.	23. Adylbekov N.
25. Marchuk M.	41. Albrant D.
7. Marchuk R.	7. Fedchenko N.
4. McGill E.	5. Hardy E.
35. Moorman J. P.	26. Severgin D.
Substitutes
11. Denisov D.	16. Gritchin P.
1. Dots V.	22. Isagulov A.
2. Korganbaev G.	24. Kalymbetov D.
3. Musuraliev I.	33. Sahipov S.
5. Neff K.	14. Sviridov D.
15. Petrishinets V.	31. Timofeev N.
22. Rolgeyzer A.	25. Volkov A.

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kaspiy Aktau won 5.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Almaty may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Kaspiy Aktau has had a series of away games.

In this match, Kaspiy Aktau is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kaspiy Aktau won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 1587:1582. (average 79.4:79.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Kaspiy Aktau won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 831:777. (average 83.1:77.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kaspiy Aktau Basketball
Kazakh National League Basketball
11.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Almaty	88:73 ✺
11.04.26	Astana - Kaspiy Aktau	73:68 ✺
10.04.26	Astana - Kaspiy Aktau	73:68 ✺
30.03.26	Barsy Atyrau - Kaspiy Aktau	81:86 ✺
29.03.26	Barsy Atyrau - Kaspiy Aktau	86:79 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLLWL
- BC Almaty
Kazakh National League Basketball
11.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Almaty	88:73 ✺
08.05.26	Turan - Almaty	56:89 ✺
07.05.26	Almaty - Turan	95:65
22.03.26	Almaty - Astana	54:81 ✺
21.03.26	Almaty - Astana	68:82 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh National League Basketball
11.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Almaty	88:73
22.02.26	Almaty - Kaspiy Aktau	71:83
21.02.26	Almaty - Kaspiy Aktau	79:95
30.01.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Almaty	95:75
29.01.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Almaty	91:78
23.11.25	Almaty - Kaspiy Aktau	75:69
22.11.25	Almaty - Kaspiy Aktau	67:70

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