Match Info

NKL - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 April 2026, Friday

Location: „Žalgirio“ treniruočių centras (Kaunas)


	Kauno Žalgiris-2		Neptūnas-Akvaservis

	1	2
	1.4	2.55
	1.38	2.8
	1.45	2.51	Watch
	1.4	2.7
	1.42	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↑ (1.39)	2.64 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 156.75

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kauno Žalgiris-2
65.2%

Neptūnas-Akvaservis
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.3%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

45.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kauno Žalgiris-2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Neptūnas-Akvaservis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kauno Žalgiris-2 than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kauno Žalgiris-2 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neptūnas-Akvaservis than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Neptūnas-Akvaservis could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Kauno Žalgiris 2 - Neptūnas Akvaservis Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 81:76

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Bulanovas M. (C)	6. Jonkus E. (C)
8. Daubaris D.	77. Lesciauskas K.
55. Grunkis D.	24. Metrikis K.
10. Raupelis N.	12. Sakaitis R.
7. Rudaitis J.	31. Zilius E.
Substitutes
35. Brnovic M.	1. Erlickis A.
17. Lavrinovic T.	16. Macijauskas M.
4. Mikalauskas K.	13. Maciulis R.
66. Mistautas N.	28. Remeikis D.
16. Stombergas I.	7. Sarakauskas S.
3. Urbonavicius D.	39. Virkutis J.
	10. Zymantas A.
Coaches
. Kondratavicius R.	. Gaidamavicius T.

Preview

Series tied 1-1. Third leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Žalgiris-2 won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Neptūnas-Akvaservis may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Žalgiris-2 is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Žalgiris-2 won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 797:766. (average 79.7:76.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Žalgiris-2 won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 317:290. (average 79.3:72.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
9	Neptunas 2	4	2	2	320:310	2
12	Zalgiris Kaunas 2	4	2	2	396:401	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kauno Žalgiris-2 Basketball
Lietuvos NKL
01.04.26	Neptūnas-Akvaservis - Kauno Žalgiris-2	93:103 ✺
28.03.26	Kauno Žalgiris-2 - Neptūnas-Akvaservis	72:78 ✺
14.03.26	Perlas Vilkaviškis - Kauno Žalgiris-2	92:81 ✺
12.03.26	Kauno Žalgiris-2 - Kėdainiai	92:86 ✺
07.03.26	Vytis Šakiai - Kauno Žalgiris-2	81:92 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLLWW
- Klaipėdos Neptūnas-Akvaservis
Lietuvos NKL
01.04.26	Neptūnas-Akvaservis - Kauno Žalgiris-2	93:103 ✺
28.03.26	Kauno Žalgiris-2 - Neptūnas-Akvaservis	72:78 ✺
25.03.26	Telšiai - Neptūnas-Akvaservis	66:93 ✺
23.03.26	Neptūnas-Akvaservis - Telšiai	78:53 ✺
20.03.26	Telšiai - Neptūnas-Akvaservis	67:61 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Lietuvos NKL
01.04.26	Neptūnas-Akvaservis - Kauno Žalgiris-2	93:103
28.03.26	Kauno Žalgiris-2 - Neptūnas-Akvaservis	72:78
20.01.26	Neptūnas-Akvaservis - Kauno Žalgiris-2	80:79
18.10.25	Kauno Žalgiris-2 - Neptūnas-Akvaservis	87:75
21.01.25	Neptūnas-Akvaservis - Kauno Žalgiris-2	80:91
26.10.24	Kauno Žalgiris-2 - Neptūnas-Akvaservis	84:73
14.04.18	Neptūnas-Akvaservis - Kauno Žalgiris-2	68:57

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