Match Info

NBB

Date: 16 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Ginasio Prof. Hugo Ramos (Mogi das Cruzes)

Referee: Ferraz Salomao Costa D. (Bra)


	Mogi		Brasília Basquete

	1	2
	1.71	2	Watch
	1.8	1.84
	1.94	1.8
	1.82	1.88
	1.85	1.91
	1.83	1.85	Watch
	1.71	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.58)	1.9 ↓ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 151.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mogi
51.2%

Brasília Basquete
48.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.5%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mogi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mogi's form might have worsened.

Brasília Basquete has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Brasília Basquete's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mogi than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mogi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brasília Basquete than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Brasília Basquete, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mogi - Brasília Basquete Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3.5, OT - Brasília Basquete (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Brasília Basquete (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 78:75

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
7. Barbosa A.	11. Cardoso B.
6. Chagas V.	7. Corvalan F.
13. Paulo	30. Daniel
4. Ruivo F.	13. Paulichi R.
32. Vitoriano	10. Santana L.
Substitutes
0. Barry	77. Beller
5. Caldeira	2. Crescenzi K.
2. Gabriel	9. da Silva P.
31. Maicon	14. Silva B.
28. Pacheco R.	6. Silva G.
Coaches
. Penna F.	. Barbosa D.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mogi won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Brasília Basquete may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Mogi will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mogi won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 1741:1579. (average 87.1:79).

Including home matches between the teams, Mogi won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 918:769. (average 91.8:76.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mogi das Cruzes Basquete
Brazilian NBB
12.12.25	Bauru - Mogi	62:58 ✺
10.12.25	Pinheiros - Mogi	84:69 ✺
04.12.25	Osasco - Mogi	68:93 ✺
23.11.25	Mogi - Corinthians Paulista	67:70 ✺
21.11.25	Mogi - União Corinthians	101:71 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLWLW
- Brasília Basquete
Brazilian NBB
12.12.25	Corinthians Paulista - Brasília Basquete	79:66 ✺
10.12.25	São José dos Campos - Brasília Basquete	87:73 ✺
06.12.25	Brasília Basquete - Unifacisa	84:81 ✺
04.12.25	Brasília Basquete - Basquete Cearense	105:90 ✺
23.11.25	Vasco da Gama - Brasília Basquete	59:81 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian NBB
13.01.25	Mogi - Brasília Basquete	89:71
26.10.24	Brasília Basquete - Mogi	86:80
20.03.24	Mogi - Brasília Basquete	104:61
30.11.23	Brasília Basquete - Mogi	81:80
19.02.22	Mogi - Brasília Basquete	83:72
19.11.21	Brasília Basquete - Mogi	78:73 OT (66:66)
08.04.21	Mogi - Brasília Basquete	97:77

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