Match Info

NCAA

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished


	Murray State Racers		Illinois State Redbirds

	1	2
	1.67	2.25
	1.55	2.33
	1.69	2.23
	1.68	2.08	Watch
	1.63	2.25
	1.59	2.24
	1.71	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.47)	2.23 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 159.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Murray State Racers
57.5%

Illinois State Redbirds
42.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

63.9%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.8%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Murray State Racers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Murray State Racers's form might have worsened.

Illinois State Redbirds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Illinois State Redbirds's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Murray State Racers than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Illinois State Redbirds than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Murray State Racers - Illinois State Redbirds Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 82:79

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Murray State won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Murray State may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Murray State will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Murray State will win today's game, with odds of 1.55.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Murray State won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 799:765. (average 72.6:69.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Murray State won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 435:414. (average 72.5:69).

Outrights of NCAA College Basketball for now

Murray State: 0.22% Illinois State: 0.22%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Murray State Racers basketball
NCAA College Basketball
24.01.26	Northern Iowa Panthers - Murray State Racers	81:76 ✺
21.01.26	Drake Bulldogs - Murray State Racers	101:90 ✺
17.01.26	Murray State Racers - Indiana State Sycamores	85:81 ✺
10.01.26	Murray State Racers - Valparaiso Beacons	92:79 ✺
07.01.26	Evansville Purple Aces - Murray State Racers	69:79 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWWW
- Illinois State Redbirds basketball
NCAA College Basketball
24.01.26	Belmont Bruins - Illinois State Redbirds	80:69 ✺
21.01.26	Illinois State Redbirds - Northern Iowa Panthers	59:54 ✺
17.01.26	Illinois State Redbirds - Bradley Braves	88:62 ✺
14.01.26	Indiana State Sycamores - Illinois State Redbirds	94:89 ✺
10.01.26	Illinois State Redbirds - Illinois-Chicago Flames	59:63 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

NCAA College Basketball
02.01.25	Murray State Racers - Illinois State Redbirds	68:74
30.01.24	Murray State Racers - Illinois State Redbirds	59:61
03.12.23	Illinois State Redbirds - Murray State Racers	76:72
15.02.23	Illinois State Redbirds - Murray State Racers	75:76
01.12.22	Murray State Racers - Illinois State Redbirds	70:67 OT (62:62)
16.11.21	Illinois State Redbirds - Murray State Racers	65:77
05.12.20	Murray State Racers - Illinois State Redbirds	76:65

Murray State Racers - Illinois State Redbirds