Match Info

Liga Uruguaya - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 25 May 2026, Monday

Location: Polideportivo Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)


	Nacional		Aguada

	1	2
			Watch
	1.36	2.65
	1.35	2.92
	1.38	2.78	Watch
	1.36	2.88
	1.37	2.85	Watch
	1.28	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↑ (1.31)	2.86 ↓ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 176.25

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
68%

Aguada
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.1%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.4%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Aguada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aguada than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Nacional - Aguada Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Aguada will win (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 91:85

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
4. Feldeine J.	13. Santiso J. (C)
23. Oglivie E.	23. Santos L.
10. Parodi L.	8. Sims D.
21. Prieto P. (C)	4. Vidal S.
24. Zinaich C.	2. Williams J.
Substitutes
33. Barrera B.	33. Acuna V.
8. Cabot M.	1. Fernandez M.
88. Carbone J.	14. Gentile A.
2. Galeano J.	3. Osimani J.
20. Gomez P.	6. Pereiras F.
3. Mendez A.	10. Rodriguez J.
22. Superi E.	24. Zuvich A.
Coaches
. Ponce A.	. Taboada L.

Preview

Series tied 1-1. Third leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2.

Now, both teams are in good form.

In this match, Nacional is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1782:1811. (average 89.1:90.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 894:869. (average 89.4:86.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional - the odds 1.31 are the expected chance of winning is 70.09%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo Basketball
Uruguayan Liga Basketball
21.05.26	Aguada - Nacional	89:109 ✺
18.05.26	Nacional - Aguada	83:96 ✺
11.05.26	Nacional - Biguá	100:78 ✺
08.05.26	Biguá - Nacional	82:105 ✺
05.05.26	Nacional - Biguá	98:95 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLWWW
- Atletico Aguada
Uruguayan Liga Basketball
21.05.26	Aguada - Nacional	89:109 ✺
18.05.26	Nacional - Aguada	83:96 ✺
12.05.26	Hebraica y Macabi - Aguada	81:85 ✺
09.05.26	Aguada - Hebraica y Macabi	84:74 ✺
06.05.26	Hebraica y Macabi - Aguada	73:78 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Liga Basketball
21.05.26	Aguada - Nacional	89:109
18.05.26	Nacional - Aguada	83:96
25.04.26	Aguada - Nacional	101:82
11.04.26	Nacional - Aguada	101:82
20.12.25	Aguada - Nacional	98:94
20.10.25	Nacional - Aguada	82:79
01.06.25	Nacional - Aguada	79:77

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