Match Info

LKL - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Svyturio Arena (Klaipeda)


	Neptūnas		Gargždai

	1	2
	1.28	3.4	Watch
	1.24	3.55
	1.25	3.6	Watch
	1.25	3.5
	1.26	3.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↓ (1.35)	3.55 ↑ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 180.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neptūnas
73.8%

Gargždai
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.3%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.6%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neptūnas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Neptūnas's performance.

Gargždai has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gargždai might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neptūnas than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gargždai than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Neptūnas - Gargždai Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 95:86

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Berucka A.	7. Mineikis N.
6. Lomazs R.	14. Petrilevicius P.
25. Silins K.	5. Pipkins J.
1. Tarolis D.	11. Turner J.
11. Velicka A.	22. Vaistaras L.
Substitutes
0. Cleary H.	0. Chargois E.
8. Girdziunas M.	13. Gailius D. (C)
15. Klanjscek M.	2. Gervinas M.
10. Kozys V.	8. Gervinas U.
13. Majauskas A.	4. Giedraitis K.
9. Pacevicius M. (C)	33. Meiers M.
24. Waterman Z.	1. Pulliam T.
Coaches
. Petrauskas G.	. Rinkevicius T.

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Neptūnas won 3.

Neptūnas is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gargždai is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Gargždai may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Neptūnas has had a series of home games.

In this match, Neptūnas is the team to beat.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Neptūnas won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 998:867. (average 90.7:78.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Neptūnas won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 562:485. (average 93.7:80.8).

Outrights of Lietuvos Krepsinio Lyga for now

Neptunas: 2.92% Gargzdai: 0.82%

Standings

		Pl	W	L		PCT
2	Gargzdai	4	3	1	359:357	0.750
3	Neptunas	4	2	2	335:326	0.500

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BC Neptūnas Klaipeda
Lietuvos Krepsinio Lyga
17.05.26	Neptūnas - Jonava	95:89 ✺
13.05.26	Neptūnas - Žalgiris Kaunas	90:93 ✺
10.05.26	Neptūnas - Gargždai	91:97 ✺
02.05.26	Juventus Utena - Neptūnas	102:91 ✺
29.04.26	Neptūnas - Rytas	91:98 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 WLLLL
- BC Gargždai-SC
Lietuvos Krepsinio Lyga
16.05.26	Gargždai - Rytas	103:98 ✺
10.05.26	Neptūnas - Gargždai	91:97 ✺
06.05.26	Lietkabelis - Gargždai	69:78 ✺
02.05.26	Gargždai - Jonava	104:109 OT ✺
26.04.26	Nevėžis Kedainiai - Gargždai	85:90 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Lietuvos Krepsinio Lyga
10.05.26	Neptūnas - Gargždai	91:97
14.03.26	Gargždai - Neptūnas	81:70
13.12.25	Gargždai - Neptūnas	87:104
11.10.25	Neptūnas - Gargždai	102:74
14.01.24	Neptūnas - Gargždai	100:81
Lietuvos King Mindaugas Cup
16.11.23	Neptūnas - Gargždai	84:78
Lietuvos Krepsinio Lyga
06.11.23	Gargždai - Neptūnas	73:92

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