Match Info

Liga Uruguaya - Winners stage

Date: 8 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Palacio Penarol (Montevideo)


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Nacional

	1	2
			Watch
	1.48	2.3
	1.46	2.56
	1.49	2.4	Watch
	1.44	2.5
	1.44	2.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↑ (1.39)	2.44 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 167.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
62.5%

Nacional
37.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.2%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 87:82

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Ibarguen A.	51. Espindola G.
8. Pomoli N.	4. Feldeine J.
10. Serres E. (C)	23. Oglivie E.
25. Vescovi S.	10. Parodi L.
2. Washington J.	88. Thomas E.
Substitutes
22. Bavosi F.	33. Barrera B.
35. Calimares S.	8. Cabot M.
52. Delgado J.	2. Galeano J.
21. Heilmann C.	20. Gomez P.
15. Lema N.	3. Mendez A.
3. McKinney M.	21. Prieto P. (C)
42. Rojas M.	22. Superi E.
Coaches
. Garcia L.	. Ponce A.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 2.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Peñarol has had a series of away games.

Peñarol might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 1035:983. (average 79.6:75.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 471:426. (average 78.5:71).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo Basketball
Uruguayan Liga Basketball
26.03.26	Hebraica y Macabi - Peñarol de Montevideo	87:97 OT ✺
19.03.26	Malvín - Peñarol de Montevideo	67:96 ✺
12.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	88:80 ✺
09.03.26	Aguada - Peñarol de Montevideo	86:80 ✺
19.02.26	Urunday Universitario - Peñarol de Montevideo	83:100 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWLW
- Nacional Montevideo Basketball
Uruguayan Liga Basketball
30.03.26	Malvín - Nacional	69:71 ✺
26.03.26	Defensor Sporting - Nacional	68:80 ✺
23.03.26	Nacional - Malvín	88:90 ✺
19.03.26	Hebraica y Macabi - Nacional	80:111 ✺
Champions League Americas Basketball
14.03.26	Nacional - Paisas de Medellín	96:75 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Liga Basketball
08.12.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional	82:69
13.10.25	Nacional - Peñarol de Montevideo	62:87
10.03.25	Nacional - Peñarol de Montevideo	90:72
18.01.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional	85:89
12.11.24	Nacional - Peñarol de Montevideo	80:78
22.04.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional	63:67
05.04.24	Nacional - Peñarol de Montevideo	94:78

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