Match Info

PBA Commissioner's Cup

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	San Miguel Beermen		Magnolia Hotshots

	1	2
			Watch
	1.65	2.12	Watch
	1.75	1.93
	1.36	3.04	Watch
	1.57	2.3
	1.7	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.69)	2.3 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 196.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Miguel Beermen
58.9%

Magnolia Hotshots
41.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.1%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9%

46.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Miguel Beermen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Magnolia Hotshots has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Miguel Beermen than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Magnolia Hotshots than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

San Miguel Beermen - Magnolia Hotshots Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. San Miguel Beermen (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - San Miguel Beermen (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: San Miguel Beermen will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. San Miguel Beermen (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 102:94

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Miguel Beermen won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Magnolia Hotshots may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that San Miguel Beermen will win today's game, with odds of 1.69.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, San Miguel Beermen won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 1833:1841. (average 91.7:92.1).

Including home matches between the teams, San Miguel Beermen won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 915:917. (average 91.5:91.7).

Last Results with these Odds

San Miguel Beermen - the odds 1.69 are the expected chance of winning is 55.05%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Miguel Beermen
Philippines - Commissioners Cup
08.04.26	San Miguel Beermen - Rain or Shine Elasto Painters	112:116 ✺
05.04.26	Barangay Ginebra San Miguel - San Miguel Beermen	82:85 ✺
31.03.26	San Miguel Beermen - Macau Black Bears	110:94 ✺
28.03.26	TNT Tropang 5G - San Miguel Beermen	118:92 ✺
25.03.26	San Miguel Beermen - Converge FiberXers	103:99 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWWLW
- Magnolia Hotshots
Philippines - Commissioners Cup
10.04.26	Magnolia Hotshots - Barangay Ginebra San Miguel	89:91 ✺
07.04.26	Terrafirma Dyip - Magnolia Hotshots	70:85 ✺
28.03.26	Magnolia Hotshots - Macau Black Bears	121:109 ✺
22.03.26	Blackwater Bossing - Magnolia Hotshots	97:91 ✺
15.03.26	NLEX Road Warriors - Magnolia Hotshots	112:105 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Philippines Cup
07.11.25	San Miguel Beermen - Magnolia Hotshots	94:92
16.04.25	San Miguel Beermen - Magnolia Hotshots	95:98 OT
Philippines - Commissioners Cup
12.01.25	Magnolia Hotshots - San Miguel Beermen	78:85
Philippines Cup
26.04.24	Magnolia Hotshots - San Miguel Beermen	91:98
Philippines - Commissioners Cup
14.02.24	Magnolia Hotshots - San Miguel Beermen	102:104
11.02.24	San Miguel Beermen - Magnolia Hotshots	108:98
09.02.24	Magnolia Hotshots - San Miguel Beermen	96:85

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