Match Info

EuroBasket - Round 4

Date: 1 September 2025, Monday

Location: Nokia Arena (Tampere)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 1
Finland	Ruutu+
France	beIN Sports MAX 4
Germany	Magenta Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Montenegro	TVCG 1
Serbia	Arena Premium 3, SportKlub 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	SVT 1, SVT Play
World	Court Side 1891


	Sweden		Montenegro

	1	2
	2	1.83	Watch
	2	1.83
	2.04	1.82	Watch
	2.02	1.83
	2.45	1.51	Watch
	2.08	1.78
	2.09	1.81
	3.15	1.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (3.15)	1.72 ↑ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 157.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sweden
43.5%

Montenegro
56.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

70.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

65.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sweden has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sweden's performance.

Montenegro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Montenegro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sweden than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sweden that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montenegro than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Montenegro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	0%	17.6%

Sweden - Montenegro Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Sweden will win (votes: 27 - 81.8%). Montenegro will win (votes: 6 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sweden: 68.6% – 95%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 158, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sweden will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 78:80

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Birgander S. Murcia	0. Allman K. Besiktas
18. Gaddefors V. Torun	8. Hadzibegovic E. Studentski Centar
12. Hakanson L. Murcia	3. Mihailovic V. Zadar
9. Larsson P. Miami Heat	7. Slavkovic A. Buducnost
19. Pantzar M. J. Bilbao	4. Vucevic N. Chicago Bulls
Substitutes
1. Andersson D. Dziki Warszawa	22. Drobnjak I. Studentski Centar
6. Borg T. Palencia	13. Jovanovic D. Buducnost
5. Falk W. Murcia	19. Nikolic Z. Studentski Centar
15. Markusson M. Dabrowa Gornicza	9. Simonovic M. Bahcesehir Koleji
31. Njie B. Braunschweig	10. Tomasevic B. FMP Beograd
2. Ramstedt A. Valur	11. Vuceljic Z. Studentski Centar
16. Spires N.	17. Zivanovic B. Podgorica
Coaches
. Riipinen M.	. Radovic B.

Preview

Both teams are currently in poor form.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sweden won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 156:178. (average 78:89).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sweden basketball
EuroBasket
30.08.25	Great Britain - Sweden	59:78 ✺
29.08.25	Germany - Sweden	105:83 ✺
27.08.25	Sweden - Finland	90:93 ✺
Friendly International Basketball
20.08.25	Sweden - Estonia	87:88 ✺
16.08.25	Portugal - Sweden	78:61 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLLLL
- Montenegro basketball
EuroBasket
30.08.25	Montenegro - Finland	65:85 ✺
29.08.25	Lithuania - Montenegro	94:67 ✺
27.08.25	Montenegro - Germany	76:106 ✺
Friendly International Basketball
23.08.25	Turkey - Montenegro	96:85 ✺
17.08.25	Montenegro - Israel	88:76 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

EuroBasket
23.02.25	Sweden - Montenegro	86:83 OT
25.02.24	Montenegro - Sweden	95:70

Sweden - Montenegro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide