Match Info

NCAA

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday


	Tarleton State Texans		California Baptist Lancers

	1	2
	1.91	1.91
	1.8	1.92
	1.78	1.95	Watch
	1.85	1.91
	1.83	2
	1.86	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.65)	1.94 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 145.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tarleton State Texans
51.3%

California Baptist Lancers
48.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tarleton State Texans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tarleton State Texans's form might have worsened.

California Baptist Lancers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting California Baptist Lancers's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tarleton State Texans than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tarleton State Texans, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for California Baptist Lancers than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for California Baptist Lancers, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tarleton State Texans - California Baptist Lancers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 75:72

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tarleton State won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

California Baptist may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tarleton State might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Tarleton State won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 584:643. (average 64.9:71.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Tarleton State won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 233:210. (average 77.7:70).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tarleton State Texans basketball
NCAA College Basketball
01.01.26	Tarleton State Texans - Utah Valley Wolverines	85:91 ✺
29.12.25	Texas-Arlington Mavericks - Tarleton State Texans	63:69 ✺
19.12.25	Tarleton State Texans - Florida A&M Rattlers	78:54 ✺
16.12.25	Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils - Tarleton State Texans	64:88 ✺
01.12.25	Cincinnati Bearcats - Tarleton State Texans	76:58 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWWWL
- California Baptist Lancers basketball
NCAA College Basketball
01.01.26	Texas-Arlington Mavericks - California Baptist Lancers	63:51 ✺
29.12.25	Utah Valley Wolverines - California Baptist Lancers	73:66 ✺
20.12.25	California Baptist Lancers - Sacramento State Hornets	74:67 ✺
16.12.25	California Baptist Lancers - Southern University Jaguars	75:67 ✺
12.12.25	Eastern Washington Eagles - California Baptist Lancers	83:88 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

NCAA College Basketball
13.03.25	California Baptist Lancers - Tarleton State Texans	55:51
06.03.25	California Baptist Lancers - Tarleton State Texans	68:48
16.01.25	Tarleton State Texans - California Baptist Lancers	67:57
24.02.24	Tarleton State Texans - California Baptist Lancers	82:65
11.01.24	California Baptist Lancers - Tarleton State Texans	77:63
21.01.23	California Baptist Lancers - Tarleton State Texans	77:48
20.01.22	Tarleton State Texans - California Baptist Lancers	84:88

Tarleton State Texans - California Baptist Lancers: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide