Match Info

Euroleague - Round 30

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Roig Arena (Valencia)

Referee: Pastusiak P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Europe	Go3 Baltic Euroleague
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	SKWeek App
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports 6
Israel	Sport 5
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3, Arena Premium 5
Turkey	S Sport+
World	EuroLeague TV


	Valencia		Žalgiris Kaunas

	1	2
	1.38	2.77	Watch
	1.45	2.75
	1.4	2.95	Watch
	1.51	2.68
	1.46	2.89	Watch
	1.4	2.9
	1.46	2.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.43)	2.83 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 177.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valencia
66.3%

Žalgiris Kaunas
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.6%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.3%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valencia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Žalgiris Kaunas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valencia than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Valencia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Žalgiris Kaunas than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Žalgiris Kaunas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	0%	22.2%

Valencia - Žalgiris Kaunas Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Valencia will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Žalgiris will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Valencia: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Valencia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -5.5, OT - Žalgiris (4.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2.5, 2nd Half - Žalgiris (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2.5, 1st Half - Žalgiris (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5, 1Q - Žalgiris (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Valencia (votes: 1 - 20%). Žalgiris (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 92:87

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
0. Badio B.	51. Butkevicius A.
4. Pradilla J.	12. Lo M.
2. Puerto J.	14. Sleva D.
12. Sako N.	1. Williams-Goss N.
13. Thompson D.	7. Wright M.
Substitutes
24. Costello M.	8. Brazdeikis I.
5. De Larrea S.	3. Francisco S.
7. Key B.	9. Giedraitis D.
8. Montero J.	17. Rubstavicius M.
10. Moore O.	91. Sirvydis D.
3. Reuvers N.	10. Tubelis A.
1. Taylor K.	92. Ulanovas E.
Coaches
. Martinez Sanchez P.	. Masiulis T.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Valencia won 1.

Valencia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Žalgiris is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Žalgiris may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Valencia could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Valencia won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 798:817. (average 79.8:81.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Valencia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 296:314. (average 74:78.5).

Outrights of Euroleague for now

Zalgiris Kaunas: 3.75% Valencia: 3.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	L
2	Valencia	4	4	0	405:356
7	Zalgiris Kaunas	4	2	2	340:333

Last Results with these Odds

Valencia - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 67.57%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valencia BC
Euroleague
26.02.26	Baskonia - Valencia	79:108 ✺
Spanish Basketball Cup
21.02.26	Valencia - Real Madrid	106:108 ✺
19.02.26	Valencia - Joventut Badalona	95:84 ✺
Spanish ACB League
15.02.26	BC Andorra - Valencia	75:107 ✺
Euroleague
12.02.26	Valencia - ASVEL Basket	82:67 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWWW
- Žalgiris Kaunas
Euroleague
25.02.26	Žalgiris Kaunas - Olympiacos Piraeus	99:94 OT ✺
Lietuvos King Mindaugas Cup
22.02.26	Žalgiris Kaunas - Rytas	101:85 ✺
21.02.26	Žalgiris Kaunas - Neptūnas	119:81 ✺
Lietuvos Krepsinio Lyga
18.02.26	Nevėžis Kedainiai - Žalgiris Kaunas	67:91 ✺
15.02.26	Gargždai - Žalgiris Kaunas	63:69 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Euroleague
07.11.25	Žalgiris Kaunas - Valencia	86:77
09.01.24	Valencia - Žalgiris Kaunas	79:84
27.10.23	Žalgiris Kaunas - Valencia	72:87
31.03.23	Žalgiris Kaunas - Valencia	95:74
25.11.22	Valencia - Žalgiris Kaunas	76:80
27.01.21	Valencia - Žalgiris Kaunas	78:79
22.10.20	Žalgiris Kaunas - Valencia	82:94

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