Match Info

Euroleague - Final Four - Semi-finals

Date: 22 May 2026, Friday

Location: Telekom Center Athens (Athens)

Referee: Latisevs O. (Lat)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Oneplay Sport 1, Oneplay Sport 3, Oneplay Sport 4
Europe	Go3 Baltic Euroleague
France	SKWeek App
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Israel	Sport 5
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	Setanta Sports, Setanta Sports+
World	EuroLeague TV


	Valencia		Real Madrid

	1	2
	1.82	1.82	Watch
	1.78	2.05
	1.9	1.9	Watch
	1.99	1.87
	1.95	1.93	Watch
	1.91	1.91
	1.99	1.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.8)	1.91 ↓ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 175.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valencia
50%

Real Madrid
50%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valencia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valencia than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	0%	69.2%

Valencia - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Valencia will win (votes: 12 - 30.8%). Real Madrid will win (votes: 27 - 69.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real Madrid: 54.7% – 83.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5, OT - Real Madrid (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 174, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Valencia (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Real Madrid (votes: 7 - 87.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 89:89

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
0. Badio B.	6. Abalde A.
8. Montero J.	7. Campazzo F.
4. Pradilla J.	16. Garuba U.
3. Reuvers N.	11. Hezonja M.
1. Taylor K.	8. Okeke C.
Substitutes
24. Costello M.	13. Almansa Perez I.
5. De Larrea S.	14. Deck G.
7. Key B.	24. Feliz A.
10. Moore O.	23. Llull S.
32. Nogues Gonzalez I.	0. Lyles T.
12. Sako N.	12. Maledon T.
13. Thompson D.	9. Procida G.
Coaches
. Martinez Sanchez P.	. Scariolo S.

Preview

Neutral location - Telekom Center Athens.

Valencia is Qualified for Euroleague (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Real Madrid is Qualified for Euroleague (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Valencia won 1.

Valencia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Real Madrid is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Real Madrid may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that Valencia will win today's game, with odds of 1.83.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Valencia won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 1662:1798. (average 83.1:89.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Valencia won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 672:693. (average 84:86.6).

Outrights of Euroleague for now

Real Madrid: 8.19% Valencia: 3.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	L
2	Valencia	4	4	0	405:356
16	Real Madrid	4	1	3	345:350

Last Results with these Odds

Valencia - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 52.51%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Real Madrid - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 47.49%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valencia BC
Spanish ACB League
17.05.26	Valencia - Bilbao Basket	88:83 ✺
Euroleague
13.05.26	Valencia - Panathinaikos	81:64 ✺
Spanish ACB League
10.05.26	Valencia - Baskonia	86:88 ✺
Euroleague
08.05.26	Panathinaikos - Valencia	86:89 ✺
06.05.26	Panathinaikos - Valencia	87:91 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WWLWW
- Real Madrid basketball
Spanish ACB League
17.05.26	Real Madrid - Joventut Badalona	81:89 ✺
14.05.26	Bilbao Basket - Real Madrid	88:82 ✺
10.05.26	Real Madrid - CB Breogán	97:101 ✺
Euroleague
07.05.26	Hapoel Tel Aviv - Real Madrid	78:87 ✺
05.05.26	Hapoel Tel Aviv - Real Madrid	76:69 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish ACB League
25.04.26	Valencia - Real Madrid	82:96
Euroleague
12.03.26	Real Madrid - Valencia	96:79
Spanish Basketball Cup
21.02.26	Valencia - Real Madrid	106:108
Spanish ACB League
18.01.26	Real Madrid - Valencia	94:79
Euroleague
11.11.25	Valencia - Real Madrid	89:76
Spanish Supercopa ACB
28.09.25	Real Madrid - Valencia	94:98
Spanish ACB League
25.06.25	Valencia - Real Madrid	70:81

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