Match Info

Lega A - Round 12

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: PalaRadi (Cremona)

Referee: Bartolomeo A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	LBA TV


	Vanoli-Braga Cremona		Derthona Basket Tortona

	1	2
			Watch
	2.15	1.65
	2.3	1.6	Watch
	2.31	1.58	Watch
	2.4	1.6
	2.43	1.59	Watch
	2.3	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2)	1.6 ↓ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 175.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vanoli-Braga Cremona
40.8%

Derthona Basket Tortona
59.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

53.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2%

51.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vanoli-Braga Cremona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vanoli-Braga Cremona's form might have worsened.

Derthona Basket Tortona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Derthona Basket Tortona's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vanoli-Braga Cremona than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vanoli-Braga Cremona, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derthona Basket Tortona than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Derthona Basket Tortona, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	0%	13.3%

Vanoli Braga Cremona - Derthona Basket Tortona Predictions

Users Predictions: Vanoli-Braga Cremona will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vanoli-Braga Cremona will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:90

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
0. Anigbogu I.	4. Gorham J.
7. Casarin D.	3. Hubb P.
3. Jones T.	17. Olejniczak D.
46. Ndiaye O.	25. Riismaa J.
2. Willis P.	1. Vital C.
Substitutes
23. Burns C.	13. Baldasso T.
42. Durham A.	19. Biligha P.
12. Galli F.	8. Bresciani A.
8. Grant S.	7. Chapman B.
16. Veronesi G.	10. Di Meo E.
	6. Pecchia A.
	11. Tandia L.
Coaches
. Brotto P.	. Fioretti M.

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Lega A (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cremona won 1.

Recent form of Cremona has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tortona has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tortona will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Cremona won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 660:632. (average 82.5:79).

Including home matches between the teams, Cremona won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 331:306. (average 82.8:76.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vanoli-Braga Cremona
Italian Lega A Basketball
14.12.25	Napoli Basket - Vanoli-Braga Cremona	102:76 ✺
08.12.25	Vanoli-Braga Cremona - Varese	79:87 ✺
21.11.25	Basket Brescia - Vanoli-Braga Cremona	83:72 ✺
15.11.25	Vanoli-Braga Cremona - Trieste	113:94 ✺
09.11.25	Trapani - Vanoli-Braga Cremona	96:90 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLWL
- Derthona Basket Tortona
Italian Lega A Basketball
14.12.25	Derthona Basket Tortona - Dinamo Sassari	118:113 OT ✺
08.12.25	Virtus Bologna - Derthona Basket Tortona	92:77 ✺
23.11.25	Derthona Basket Tortona - Venezia	90:98 ✺
15.11.25	Udine - Derthona Basket Tortona	90:94 ✺
12.11.25	Trieste - Derthona Basket Tortona	91:81 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Lega A Basketball
11.05.25	Vanoli-Braga Cremona - Derthona Basket Tortona	94:99
29.09.24	Derthona Basket Tortona - Vanoli-Braga Cremona	80:68
30.03.24	Derthona Basket Tortona - Vanoli-Braga Cremona	87:76
17.12.23	Vanoli-Braga Cremona - Derthona Basket Tortona	83:67
10.04.22	Vanoli-Braga Cremona - Derthona Basket Tortona	73:74
15.01.22	Derthona Basket Tortona - Vanoli-Braga Cremona	97:92
Club Friendly Basketball
04.09.19	Vanoli-Braga Cremona - Derthona Basket Tortona	81:66

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