Match Info

European Tour 12 - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: MVM Dome (Budapest)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Oneplay Sport 1
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Hungary	Net4+
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	Chris Dobey		Danny Noppert

	1	2
	1.67	2.2
	1.44	2.47	Watch
	1.67	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.67)	2.27 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chris Dobey
58.7%

Danny Noppert
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.5%

43.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chris Dobey has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Danny Noppert has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chris Dobey than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chris Dobey that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danny Noppert than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Danny Noppert could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chris Dobey - Danny Noppert Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:4

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Preview

Dobey is ranked World Ranking: 8. Noppert is ranked World Ranking: 15.

Dobey is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Noppert's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Noppert may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Dobey won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:19. (average 4.3:4.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Chris Dobey - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 56.45%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chris Dobey
Darts
21.09.25	Chris Dobey - Cameron Menzies	6:5 ✺
20.09.25	Chris Dobey - Darren Beveridge	6:3 ✺
14.09.25	Gerwyn Price - Chris Dobey	10:8 ✺
13.09.25	Chris Dobey - Cameron Menzies	6:1 ✺
13.09.25	Chris Dobey - Luke Woodhouse	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWLWW
- Danny Noppert
Darts
21.09.25	Michael Van Gerwen - Danny Noppert	5:6 ✺
20.09.25	Danny Noppert - Robert Owen	6:5 ✺
13.09.25	Danny Noppert - Josh Rock	0:6 ✺
12.09.25	Stephen Bunting - Danny Noppert	4:6 ✺
06.09.25	Danny Noppert - Gian Van Veen	2:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Darts
13.07.25	Danny Noppert - Chris Dobey	1:6
09.03.24	Danny Noppert - Chris Dobey	6:5
22.04.23	Danny Noppert - Chris Dobey	6:4
25.03.23	Danny Noppert - Chris Dobey	6:2

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