Match Info

Date: 31 March 2024, Sunday


	Dirk van Duijvenbode		Nathan Aspinall

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.1	1.73
	2.08	1.68
	2.1	1.74
	2.1	1.74
	2.1	1.73
	2.14	1.69
	2.21	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.25)	1.7 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dirk van Duijvenbode
44.4%

Nathan Aspinall
55.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

58.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

70.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dirk van Duijvenbode has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Nathan Aspinall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dirk van Duijvenbode than the current prediction. (-14.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dirk van Duijvenbode that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nathan Aspinall than the current prediction. (+14.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nathan Aspinall could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Dirk van Duijvenbode - Nathan Aspinall Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:6

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Preview

van Duijvenbode is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Aspinall in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Aspinall could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Aspinall will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Aspinall to win the game is with odds 1.62.

Last 4 head-to-head matches van Duijvenbode won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 24-31.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dirk van Duijvenbode
Darts
19.03.24	Dirk van Duijvenbode - Dave Chisnall	6:8
18.03.24	Dirk van Duijvenbode - Daniel Klose	6:5 ✺
09.03.24	Dirk van Duijvenbode - Joe Cullen	3:6 ✺
01.03.24	Dirk van Duijvenbode - Luke Humphries	7:10 ✺
03.02.24	Nathan Aspinall - Dirk van Duijvenbode	10:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LWLLL
- Nathan Aspinall
Darts
30.03.24	Nathan Aspinall - Michael Unterbuchner	6:2 ✺
28.03.24	Nathan Aspinall - Peter Wright	6:2
28.03.24	Nathan Aspinall - Gerwyn Price	6:5 ✺
21.03.24	Nathan Aspinall - Robert Cross	6:5 ✺
14.03.24	Luke Littler - Nathan Aspinall	3:6
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Darts
03.02.24	Nathan Aspinall - Dirk van Duijvenbode	10:5
04.03.23	Dirk van Duijvenbode - Nathan Aspinall	8:10
16.10.22	Nathan Aspinall - Dirk van Duijvenbode	6:5 best of 11 legs
01.03.20	Dirk van Duijvenbode - Nathan Aspinall	6:5 best of 11 legs

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