Match Info

World Grand Prix - Semi-finals

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Mattioli Arena (Leicester)


	Nathan Aspinall		Gerwyn Price

	1	2
	2.50	1.53	Watch
	2.48	1.52
	2.39	1.54	Watch
	2.18	1.61
	2.39	1.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.21)	1.55 ↓ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nathan Aspinall
39.4%

Gerwyn Price
60.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

57.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

53.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nathan Aspinall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Gerwyn Price has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nathan Aspinall than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nathan Aspinall, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gerwyn Price than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gerwyn Price, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Nathan Aspinall - Gerwyn Price Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Aspinall will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Price will win (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:3

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Preview

Format: Double in, Double out.

Aspinall is ranked World Ranking: 15., and Price is ranked World Ranking: 4..

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aspinall won 3.

Both players enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

Aspinall could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Price is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Our forecast points to a victory for Price in today's match, at odds of 1.63.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Aspinall has recorded 11 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 108:119 (averaging 5.4:6 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Nathan Aspinall - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 42.3%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Gerwyn Price - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 57.7%, but this team recently wins 65% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nathan Aspinall
Darts
02.10.26	Nathan Aspinall - Ryan Joyce	3:0 ✺
30.09.26	Luke Woodhouse - Nathan Aspinall	0:3 ✺
28.09.26	Nathan Aspinall - Kevin Doets	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Luke Littler - Nathan Aspinall	10:9 ✺
18.09.26	Nathan Aspinall - Raymond Smith	6:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWLW
- Gerwyn Price
Darts
02.10.26	Gerwyn Price - Jonny Clayton	3:2 ✺
30.09.26	Gerwyn Price - Ross Smith	3:0 ✺
28.09.26	Gerwyn Price - Sebastian Bialecki	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	Ross Smith - Gerwyn Price	11:5 ✺
20.09.26	Gerwyn Price - Jonny Clayton	11:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Darts
17.04.25	Gerwyn Price - Nathan Aspinall	3:6
06.04.25	Gerwyn Price - Nathan Aspinall	5:6
13.02.25	Nathan Aspinall - Gerwyn Price	4:6
28.03.24	Nathan Aspinall - Gerwyn Price	6:5
01.02.24	Gerwyn Price - Nathan Aspinall	6:4
28.10.23	Gerwyn Price - Nathan Aspinall	10:5
08.07.23	Gerwyn Price - Nathan Aspinall	6:3

Nathan Aspinall - Gerwyn Price: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide