Match Info

Elvi Liga

Date: 4 December 2025, Thursday


	Lielvārde		Kekava

	1	X	2
	4.75	9	1.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.75 ↑ (3.35)	9 ↑ (7.5)	1.25 ↓ (1.45)

The best margin for this event is 12.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lielvārde
18.8%

Draw
9.9%

Kekava
71.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.6%

11.9%

61.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

13.2%

55.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lielvārde has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lielvārde's form might have worsened.

Kekava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kekava's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lielvārde than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lielvārde, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kekava than the current prediction. (-15.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kekava, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 2)
2nd Period (2 - 0)
3rd Period (3 - 1)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lielvārde won 1.

Lielvārde has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Kekava's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Lielvārde has had a series of home games.

In this match, Kekava is the team to beat.

We predict that Kekava will win today's game, with odds of 1.45.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Lielvārde won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 72:90. (average 4.8:6).

Including home matches between the teams, Lielvārde won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 34:35. (average 5.7:5.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SK Lielvārde
Latvian Elvi Liga
30.11.25	Lielvārde - Irlava Avant	4:7 ✺
22.11.25	Lielvārde - Rubene	3:12 ✺
21.11.25	Bauska - Lielvārde	5:4 OT ✺
13.11.25	Lielvārde - Ulbroka	6:10 ✺
02.11.25	Lielvārde - Lekrings	5:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- FK Kekava
Latvian Elvi Liga
29.11.25	Rubene - Kekava	13:6 ✺
22.11.25	Kekava - Bauska	14:7 ✺
21.11.25	Kekava - Talsi	6:8 ✺
14.11.25	SĀC - Kekava	4:9 ✺
Latvian Estonian League Floorball
07.11.25	Kekava - Jõgeva	6:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Elvi Liga
04.10.25	Kekava - Lielvārde	7:1
22.11.24	Kekava - Lielvārde	11:3
10.10.24	Lielvārde - Kekava	6:7
08.12.23	Kekava - Lielvārde	8:4
21.09.23	Lielvārde - Kekava	7:6
06.01.23	Kekava - Lielvārde	5:4
20.11.21	Lielvārde - Kekava	4:6

Lielvārde - Kekava: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide