Match Info

Liga Nacional - Round 10

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday


	Valdepeñas		Castell de Peñiscola

	1	X	2
	1.62	5.6	3.45
	1.68	5.85	3.03	Watch
	1.64	5.4	3.3	Watch
	1.62	5	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.68)	5.46 ↓ (5.85)	3.27 ↑ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valdepeñas
55.5%

Draw
16.7%

Castell de Peñiscola
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

15.6%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

17.1%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valdepeñas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Castell de Peñiscola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valdepeñas than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Valdepeñas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castell de Peñiscola than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Castell de Peñiscola could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Valdepeñas - Castell de Peñiscola Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:4

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Vandeson (G)	22. Gus (G)
10. Alex	18. Elias
5. Boyis	14. Perez V.
7. Carrasco	5. Plaza A.
61. Mateus Torres	20. Sancho D.
Substitutes
6. Garcia A.	16. Araya B.
99. Gustavao	7. Ferreira M.
18. Joao	6. Flores L.
2. Jose Mario	12. Gonzalez G. (G)
27. Lucas Cezar	10. Juanico
26. Manzanares A.	9. Juanqui
16. Naranjo A.	19. Munoz P.
1. Puerta B. (G)	49. Rocha L.
15. Sinesio	21. Rosental N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Alex 🟨,
6', Araya B. 🟨,
12', Boyis 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
24', Alex (G),
30', Rosental N. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Valdepeñas won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Valdepeñas could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Valdepeñas will win today's game, with odds of 1.65.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Valdepeñas won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 35:42. (average 3.5:4.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Valdepeñas won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:20. (average 3.8:5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FS Valdepeñas
Spanish Primera Division Futsal
08.11.25	Valdepeñas - Alzira	1:0 ✺
01.11.25	Barcelona Alusport - Valdepeñas	4:1 ✺
25.10.25	Valdepeñas - Córdoba	0:1 ✺
10.10.25	Xota - Valdepeñas	2:2 ✺
04.10.25	Valdepeñas - O Parrulo	7:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLLTW
- Castell de Peñiscola
Spanish Primera Division Futsal
08.11.25	Castell de Peñiscola - ElPozo Murcia	2:4 ✺
01.11.25	Noia - Castell de Peñiscola	1:2 ✺
26.10.25	Castell de Peñiscola - Manzanares	5:6 ✺
12.10.25	Alzira - Castell de Peñiscola	4:6 ✺
03.10.25	Palma Futsal - Castell de Peñiscola	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera Division Futsal
25.02.25	Valdepeñas - Castell de Peñiscola	2:7
23.11.24	Castell de Peñiscola - Valdepeñas	8:6
17.02.24	Castell de Peñiscola - Valdepeñas	2:4
Spanish Copa del Rey Futsal
16.01.24	Castell de Peñiscola - Valdepeñas	3:2 OT
Spanish Primera Division Futsal
30.09.23	Valdepeñas - Castell de Peñiscola	5:5
17.03.21	Valdepeñas - Castell de Peñiscola	7:2
31.10.20	Castell de Peñiscola - Valdepeñas	3:1

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