Match Info

Liga ASOBAL - Round 25

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	LaLiga+


	Caserio Ciudad Real		Naturhouse La Rioja

	1	X	2
	3.5	9	1.5
	3.2	9.6	1.46
	3.8	8.15	1.41	Watch
	3.25	8.5	1.44
	3.43	9.6	1.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.44 ↓ (3.84)	8.97 ↓ (9.77)	1.45 ↑ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 62.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caserio Ciudad Real
26.7%

Draw
10.2%

Naturhouse La Rioja
63.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.7%

9.3%

67%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.2%

9.1%

68.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caserio Ciudad Real has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Naturhouse La Rioja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caserio Ciudad Real than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Naturhouse La Rioja than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Naturhouse La Rioja could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Caserio Ciudad Real - Naturhouse La Rioja Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:33

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Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ European League).

In recent matches, Caserio Ciudad Real has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

La Rioja is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

La Rioja may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, La Rioja is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Caserio Ciudad Real won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 35:38.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	La Rioja	5	4	0	1	175:172	8
4	Caserio Ciudad Real	4	3	1	0	134:125	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caserio Ciudad Real
Spanish Liga ASOBAL
11.04.26	Torrelavega - Caserio Ciudad Real	35:28 ✺
04.04.26	Caserio Ciudad Real - Quabit Guadalajara	34:27 ✺
28.03.26	Barcelona - Caserio Ciudad Real	43:26 ✺
15.03.26	Caserio Ciudad Real - BM Huesca	37:31 ✺
07.03.26	Nava - Caserio Ciudad Real	31:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWLWW
- Naturhouse La Rioja Logrono
Spanish Liga ASOBAL
11.04.26	Naturhouse La Rioja - Bidasoa Irun	32:34 ✺
03.04.26	BM Granollers - Naturhouse La Rioja	24:24 ✺
28.03.26	Naturhouse La Rioja - Morrazo Cangas	33:26 ✺
15.03.26	Villa de Aranda - Naturhouse La Rioja	26:35 ✺
07.03.26	Naturhouse La Rioja - Atlético Valladolid	32:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Liga ASOBAL
22.11.25	Naturhouse La Rioja - Caserio Ciudad Real	38:35

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