Match Info

Starligue - Round 5

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports 3


	Fenix Toulouse		Pays dAix

	1	X	2
	1.35	9.5	4.5
	1.33	11.5	4.4
	1.33	10	3.95
	1.34	11	3.97	Watch
	1.33	8.5	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↑ (1.3)	10.1 ↑ (10)	4.26 ↓ (5.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 61.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fenix Toulouse
69.2%

Draw
9.2%

Pays dAix
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

73.2%

9.5%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.1%

9.6%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fenix Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Pays dAix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenix Toulouse than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pays dAix than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Fenix Toulouse - Pays dAix Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:30

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Toulouse has had a series of away games.

In this match, Toulouse is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 587:568. (average 29.4:28.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 323:308. (average 29.4:28).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenix Toulouse
French Starligue Handball
28.09.25	Chambery SH - Fenix Toulouse	31:33 ✺
19.09.25	Fenix Toulouse - Chartres	41:29 ✺
14.09.25	HBC Nantes - Fenix Toulouse	28:22 ✺
05.09.25	Tremblay - Fenix Toulouse	32:23 ✺
Coupe de France Handball
02.09.25	Creteil - Fenix Toulouse	23:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWLLW
- Pays dAix Handball
French Starligue Handball
28.09.25	Pays dAix - Paris Saint-Germain	24:37 ✺
19.09.25	Cesson Rennes Métropole - Pays dAix	31:25 ✺
12.09.25	Dijon - Pays dAix	25:29 ✺
06.09.25	Pays dAix - Chartres	29:31 ✺
Coupe de France Handball
03.09.25	Angers - Pays dAix	32:39 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Starligue Handball
15.02.25	Pays dAix - Fenix Toulouse	31:29
19.10.24	Fenix Toulouse - Pays dAix	33:31
17.05.24	Pays dAix - Fenix Toulouse	34:39
13.10.23	Fenix Toulouse - Pays dAix	33:26
18.02.23	Fenix Toulouse - Pays dAix	29:25
21.10.22	Pays dAix - Fenix Toulouse	26:25
04.06.22	Fenix Toulouse - Pays dAix	29:33

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