Match Info

Starligue - Round 26

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports 1


	Fenix Toulouse		Tremblay

	1	X	2
	1.6	8.5	3.2
	1.53	9.25	3.25
	1.53	8.4	3.05	Watch
	1.54	7.83	3.17	Watch
	1.5	8.5	3
	1.58	9.2	2.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.36)	8.61 ↓ (9.23)	3.1 ↓ (3.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 62.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fenix Toulouse
59.6%

Draw
10.7%

Tremblay
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67%

9.9%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67%

9.9%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fenix Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fenix Toulouse's form might have worsened.

Tremblay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tremblay's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenix Toulouse than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fenix Toulouse, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tremblay than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tremblay, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Fenix Toulouse - Tremblay Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Tremblay will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:30

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Toulouse might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 555:539. (average 27.8:27).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 277:256. (average 27.7:25.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
8	Tremblay	5	3	0	2	171:165	6
13	Toulouse	5	2	0	3	140:141	4

Last Results with these Odds

Fenix Toulouse - the odds 1.36 are the expected chance of winning is 66.96%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenix Toulouse
French Starligue Handball
25.04.26	USAM Nimes - Fenix Toulouse	28:39 ✺
17.04.26	Fenix Toulouse - Dijon	27:24 ✺
12.04.26	Fenix Toulouse - HBC Nantes	25:30 ✺
03.04.26	Chartres - Fenix Toulouse	33:32 ✺
27.03.26	Fenix Toulouse - Limoges	31:37 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLLL
- Tremblay HB
French Starligue Handball
24.04.26	Tremblay - Limoges	34:37 ✺
17.04.26	Selestat AHB - Tremblay	34:38 ✺
10.04.26	Chambery SH - Tremblay	36:33 ✺
04.04.26	Tremblay - Montpellier HB	36:35 ✺
28.03.26	Cesson Rennes Métropole - Tremblay	31:32 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Starligue Handball
05.09.25	Tremblay - Fenix Toulouse	32:23
20.03.25	Tremblay - Fenix Toulouse	31:25
08.09.24	Fenix Toulouse - Tremblay	32:23
17.04.21	Tremblay - Fenix Toulouse	26:31
31.03.21	Fenix Toulouse - Tremblay	25:24
19.02.20	Fenix Toulouse - Tremblay	36:27
11.09.19	Tremblay - Fenix Toulouse	31:22

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