Match Info

1. NLB Liga - Winners stage - Round 2

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday


	Slovenj Gradec		Gorenje Velenje

	1	X	2
	1.72	7.6	2.6
	1.71	7.27	2.62	Watch
	1.73	7.5	2.5
	1.73	8.7	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.8)	7.77 ↓ (7.8)	2.57 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 59.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Slovenj Gradec
52.8%

Draw
11.7%

Gorenje Velenje
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

11.7%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

10.7%

41.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Slovenj Gradec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Gorenje Velenje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Slovenj Gradec than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Slovenj Gradec that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gorenje Velenje than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gorenje Velenje could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Slovenj Gradec - Gorenje Velenje Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:29

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Slovenj Gradec won 1.

Recent form of Slovenj Gradec has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gorenje has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Slovenj Gradec may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Slovenj Gradec won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 426:485. (average 26.6:30.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Slovenj Gradec won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 234:261. (average 26:29).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
5	Gorenje	6	4	0	2	174:166	8
7	Slovenj Gradec	6	2	2	2	174:168	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RK Slovenj Gradec 2011
Slovenian 1 NLB Liga Handball
15.03.26	Slovan Ljubljana - Slovenj Gradec	37:28 ✺
08.03.26	Slovenj Gradec - Trimo Trebnje	25:26 ✺
26.02.26	Slovan Ljubljana - Slovenj Gradec	33:28 ✺
21.02.26	Radovljica - Slovenj Gradec	29:28 ✺
14.02.26	Slovenj Gradec - Škofja Loka	31:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLW
- RK Gorenje Velenje
Slovenian 1 NLB Liga Handball
13.03.26	Gorenje Velenje - Škofja Loka	27:28 ✺
06.03.26	Ribnica - Gorenje Velenje	30:28 ✺
27.02.26	Gorenje Velenje - Radovljica	26:22 ✺
18.02.26	Gorenje Velenje - Celje Pivovarna Laško	25:30 ✺
13.02.26	Jeruzalem Ormož - Gorenje Velenje	28:35 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Slovenian 1 NLB Liga Handball
13.12.25	Slovenj Gradec - Gorenje Velenje	26:30
26.09.25	Gorenje Velenje - Slovenj Gradec	35:31
07.03.25	Gorenje Velenje - Slovenj Gradec	29:30
Slovenian Cup Handball
04.12.24	Slovenj Gradec - Gorenje Velenje	24:29
Slovenian 1 NLB Liga Handball
16.11.24	Slovenj Gradec - Gorenje Velenje	25:32
12.04.24	Gorenje Velenje - Slovenj Gradec	35:28
11.11.23	Slovenj Gradec - Gorenje Velenje	25:25

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