Match Info

WORLD: Olympic Games - Round 5

Date: 4 August 2024, Sunday

Location: South Paris Arena 6 (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Discovery+, DR 2
Hungary	Duna World / M4 Sport +
Switzerland	SRF 2, SRF 2
World	Eurosport 8, Max


	Spain		Croatia

	1	X	2
	1.75	8.5	2.7
	1.83	8	2.45
	1.76	8.49	2.64
	1.74	8.36	2.67	Watch
	1.75	8	2.45
	1.76	8.3	2.61	Watch
	1.76	8.49	2.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (2.05)	8.31 ↑ (7.8)	2.59 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 58.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spain
52.8%

Draw
11.2%

Croatia
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

11.6%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

11.3%

45.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Spain's performance.

Croatia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Croatia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spain than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Spain that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Croatia than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Croatia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	8.3%	16.7%

Spain - Croatia Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Spain will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Croatia will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Spain: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:30

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Lineups


25. Casado A.	33. Cindric L.
12. Corrales R.	5. Duvnjak D. (C)
10. Dujshebaev A.	40. Grahovac N.
59. Dujshebaev D.	9. Klarica L.
70. Fernandez D.	1. Kuzmanovic D.
18. Garciandia I.	41. Lucin T.
28. Gomez A.	12. Mandic M.
5. Maqueda J.	51. Martinovic I.
62. Odriozola K.	2. Mihic L.
1. Perez de Vargas G. (C)	93. Nacinovic V.
99. Rodriguez J.	17. Sarac J.
51. Sanchez-Migallon M.	53. Sipic M.
20. Serdio A.	6. Sostaric M.
36. Tarrafeta I.	11. Srna Z.
Coaches
. Ribera J.	. Sigurdsson D.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Spain won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Spain won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 324-332.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spain handball
Olympic Games - Handball
02.08.24	Germany - Spain	33:31 ✺
31.07.24	Spain - Japan	37:33 ✺
29.07.24	Sweden - Spain	29:26 ✺
27.07.24	Spain - Slovenia	25:22 ✺
Friendly International Handball
18.07.24	Norway - Spain	35:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LWLWL
- Croatia handball
Olympic Games - Handball
02.08.24	Croatia - Sweden	27:38 ✺
31.07.24	Croatia - Germany	31:26 ✺
29.07.24	Slovenia - Croatia	31:29 ✺
27.07.24	Croatia - Japan	30:29 ✺
Friendly International Handball
17.07.24	France - Croatia	31:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Handball European Championship
12.01.24	Spain - Croatia	29:39
EHF Euro Cup
27.06.21	Spain - Croatia	34:22
05.01.21	Croatia - Spain	31:28
Handball European Championship
26.01.20	Spain - Croatia	22:20
22.01.20	Croatia - Spain	22:22
Handball World Championship
17.01.19	Spain - Croatia	19:23
Mediterranean Games Handball
29.06.18	Spain - Croatia	29:31 OT

Spain - Croatia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide