Match Info

1. Division - Round 11

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday


	Tønder		Aarhus

	1	X	2
	3.25	9.2	1.46
	3.29	9.9	1.47
	2.8	8.6	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↑ (2.76)	9.23 ↑ (8.65)	1.52 ↓ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 58.75

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tønder
29.5%

Draw
10%

Aarhus
60.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.8%

10.5%

56.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

10.1%

58.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tønder has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Aarhus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tønder than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aarhus than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Tønder - Aarhus Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:31

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tønder won 1.

Recent performances by Tønder have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Aarhus is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Aarhus might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Aarhus will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Tønder won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 158:189. (average 26.3:31.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Tønder won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 83:93. (average 27.7:31).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TM Tønder Håndbold
Danish 1 Division Handball
07.11.25	Skive FH - Tønder	30:28 ✺
26.10.25	Tønder - Give	35:28 ✺
18.10.25	KIF Kolding - Tønder	34:25 ✺
10.10.25	Tønder - Odder HB	34:29 ✺
05.10.25	HC København - Tønder	32:32 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LWLWT
- Aarhus Handbold
Danish 1 Division Handball
08.11.25	Aarhus - Rækker Mølle	37:35 ✺
24.10.25	Lemvig-Thyborøn - Aarhus	29:33 ✺
17.10.25	Aarhus - Midtjylland	32:26 ✺
10.10.25	Norddjurs - Aarhus	30:35 ✺
04.10.25	TIK Taastrup - Aarhus	26:32 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Danish 1 Division Handball
12.04.25	Tønder - Aarhus	23:25
08.12.24	Aarhus - Tønder	32:20
Danish Cup Handball
26.08.19	Tønder - Aarhus	25:37
Danish Handbold Ligaen
23.12.17	Tønder - Aarhus	35:31
23.09.17	Aarhus - Tønder	30:22
Club Friendly Hanbdall
17.08.17	Aarhus - Tønder	34:33 penalties

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