Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 17

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Hungary	Sport 2
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay
Ukraine	Sport 2
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	TBV Lemgo		THW Kiel

	1	X	2
	2.6	7.5	1.85
	2.46	7.8	1.77
	2.6	7.4	1.74	Watch
	2.38	7.5	1.8
	2.4	8.8	1.81
	2.54	8.5	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.68)	7.92 ↓ (9.65)	1.8 ↑ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 57.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TBV Lemgo
37%

Draw
11.7%

THW Kiel
51.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

9.4%

56.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

54.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TBV Lemgo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

THW Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and THW Kiel might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TBV Lemgo than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for THW Kiel than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

TBV Lemgo - THW Kiel Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:30

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Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ European League and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ European League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lemgo won 0.

Both teams have triumphed in their latest matches.

Kiel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Kiel will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lemgo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 16 matches, and goals 515:594. (average 25.8:29.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Lemgo won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 260:283. (average 26:28.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TBV Lemgo
German Bundesliga Handball
10.12.25	Frisch Auf Göppingen - TBV Lemgo	26:33 ✺
04.12.25	TBV Lemgo - Flensburg-Handewitt	34:33 ✺
30.11.25	Füchse Berlin - TBV Lemgo	33:34 ✺
21.11.25	TBV Lemgo - Eisenach	28:19 ✺
16.11.25	Erlangen - TBV Lemgo	24:25 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.6 WWWWW
- THW Kiel
German Bundesliga Handball
10.12.25	THW Kiel - Stuttgart	33:32 ✺
EHF European League
02.12.25	THW Kiel - Montpellier HB	27:18 ✺
German Bundesliga Handball
28.11.25	Eisenach - THW Kiel	27:27 ✺
EHF European League
25.11.25	Ostrovia Ostrów Wielkopolski - THW Kiel	25:33 ✺
German Bundesliga Handball
22.11.25	THW Kiel - Frisch Auf Göppingen	34:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga Handball
15.05.25	THW Kiel - TBV Lemgo	35:29
26.12.24	TBV Lemgo - THW Kiel	22:23
31.03.24	TBV Lemgo - THW Kiel	27:28
22.10.23	THW Kiel - TBV Lemgo	33:29
26.02.23	TBV Lemgo - THW Kiel	22:28
05.11.22	THW Kiel - TBV Lemgo	32:33
German DHB Pokal
23.04.22	THW Kiel - TBV Lemgo	28:26

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