The best margin for this event is 10.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Arktika Murmansk 40.4%
Draw 22%
Fakel Salekhard 37.6%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
40.9%
21.8%
37.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38.4%
22.7%
38.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arktika Murmansk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)
Fakel Salekhard has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arktika Murmansk than the current prediction. (-2%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fakel Salekhard than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
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Key Events of the Match
1st Period (0 - 1)
05:10, 0 - 1, Ugryumov P. (G), Provotorov V. (A),
2nd Period (2 - 0)
16:12, 1 - 1, Shumilin L. (G), Whisperer A. (A), Kanaev P. (A2)
18:26, 2 - 1, Gaikov Y. (G), Pilyugin K. (A),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
07:35, 2 - 2, Utkin M. (G), Provotorov V. (A), Ivanitsky S. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 1)
00:50, 2 - 3, Klochanov A. (G), Zinovyev M. (A),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arktika won 3.
Arktika has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
Fakel is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Fakel could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Both teams have recently been through a succession of home fixtures.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
Our forecast points to a victory for Arktika in today's match, at odds of 2.21.
In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Arktika has recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 33:53 (averaging 2.5:4.1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Arktika against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 20:27 goals (averaging 2.9:3.9 per game).
Last Results with these Odds
Fakel Salekhard - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 37.34%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.
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