Match Info

WCH IA

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Winter Stadium (Sosnowiec)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1


	Lithuania		Japan

	1	X	2
	3.6	4.5	1.75	Watch
	3.4	4.1	1.86	Watch
	3.67	4.15	1.82
	12.09	4.23	1.32	Watch
	3.64	4.15	1.75
	3.5	4.5	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.98 ↑ (3.5)	4.27 ↓ (4.5)	1.7 ↑ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lithuania
19.6%

Draw
22.8%

Japan
57.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.8%

20.1%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.4%

22.1%

49.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lithuania has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lithuania's form might have worsened.

Japan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lithuania than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lithuania, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Japan than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Japan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Lithuania - Japan Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Japan will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 6.5, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Nauseda F. (G) Stjernen	1. Narisawa Y. (G) Red Eagles Hokkaido
2. Rumsevicius P. Energija Elektrenai	4. Yoneyama K. Tohoku Free Blades
11. Gusevas K. Annecy	6. Murakami R.
8. Gintautas P. (A) Comet	24. Sato Y. Dynamo Altay (VHL)
13. Cizas U. (A) Comet	22. Nakajima T. (C) Red Eagles Hokkaido
19. Sadauskas D. Liepaja	17. Hanzawa C. HL Anyang
Line 2
4. Alisauskas N. (C) Spisska Nova Ves	5. Halliday J. Red Eagles Hokkaido
24. Kovalenko D. Sparta Sarpsborg	2. Hayata S. Nikko Ice Bucks
97. Krakauskas E. Olten	26. Hirano Y. (A) Dusseldorf
88. Grinius M. KeuPa	18. Suzuki F.
77. Jukna D. Rimouski Oceanic	10. Keller J. Kamloops Blazers
Line 3
16. Valivonis S. Dubuque Fighting Saints	7. Kimura S. Red Eagles Hokkaido
14. Seniut A. Unterland Cavaliers	20. Otsu Y. HL Anyang
12. Zukauskas L. Fenestela	9. Takagi K. Red Eagles Hokkaido
7. Cetvertak I.	15. Irikura T. (A) Red Eagles Hokkaido
10. Bendzius A. Energija Elektrenai	13. Miura Y. Iowa Heartlanders
Line 4
71. Marcinkevicius H. Punks Vilnius	23. Takebe T. Red Eagles Hokkaido
27. Noreika E. Peoria Rivermen	12. Suzuki M. Nikko Ice Bucks
22. Laimutis D.	14. Osawa Y. Yokohama Grits
23. Dedinas L.	25. Isogai S. Red Eagles Hokkaido
Substitutes
18. Binkulis E. Energija Elektrenai	16. Kobayashi T. Red Eagles Hokkaido
1. Lubys L. (G) Energija Elektrenai	29. Otsuka I. (G) Nikko Ice Bucks

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
08:33, 0 - 1, Sato Y. (G), Hanzawa C. (A), Nakajima T. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
00:18, 0 - 2, Yoneyama K. (G), Nakajima T. (A), Sato Y. (A2)
05:40, 1 - 2, Grinius M. (G), Krakauskas E. (A), Noreika E. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
00:41, 2 - 2, Cizas U. (G), Sadauskas D. (A), Alisauskas N. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 1)
00:35, 2 - 3, Sato Y. (G), Nakajima T. (A), Yoneyama K. (A2)

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Japan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Japan is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lithuania won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:19. (average 3:3.8).

Standings

2025

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	Japan	5	2	0	1	2	14:16	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lithuania hockey
IIHF World Championship IA
03.05.26	Ukraine - Lithuania	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Lithuania - Kazakhstan	1:4 ✺
Friendly International Ice Hockey
19.04.26	Lithuania - Estonia	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	Lithuania - Estonia	4:0 ✺
11.04.26	Lithuania - Poland	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLWWL
- Japan hockey
IIHF World Championship IA
03.05.26	Kazakhstan - Japan	6:0 ✺
02.05.26	Japan - France	3:4 ✺
Friendly International Ice Hockey
25.04.26	Hungary - Japan	2:4 ✺
24.04.26	Hungary - Japan	3:4 ✺
19.04.26	Japan - South Korea	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Winter Olympic Games - Ice Hockey
08.02.24	Lithuania - Japan	4:6
07.02.20	Japan - Lithuania	4:0
Ice Hockey International Tournament Lithuania
08.11.18	Lithuania - Japan	3:2 penalties
IIHF World Championship IB
25.04.18	Japan - Lithuania	1:6
28.04.17	Lithuania - Japan	2:6

Lithuania - Japan: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide