Match Info

RUSSIA: MHL

Date: 11 February 2023, Saturday


	Sarmaty Orenburzhya		Tolpar

	1	X	2
	4.84	5.32	1.48
	5	5.1	1.46	Watch
	4.8	4.9	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.88 ↓ (6.35)	5.11 ↓ (5.6)	1.47 ↑ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarmaty Orenburzhya
19%

Draw
18.1%

Tolpar
62.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.7%

16.7%

68.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.4%

16.4%

69.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarmaty Orenburzhya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Tolpar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tolpar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarmaty Orenburzhya than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tolpar than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tolpar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sarmaty Orenburzhya - Tolpar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:4

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sarmaty Orenburzhya won 3.

Sarmaty Orenburzhya is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Tolpar is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Tolpar could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Tolpar have a series of guest games.

In this match Tolpar is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 31 head-to-head matches Sarmaty Orenburzhya won 11 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 20 matches and goals 65-120.

Including matches at home between the teams Sarmaty Orenburzhya won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 37-53.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarmaty Orenburzhya
MHL
08.02.23	Sarmaty Orenburzhya - Stalnye Lisy	2:4 ✺
02.02.23	Sputnik Almetyevsk - Sarmaty Orenburzhya	6:2 ✺
30.01.23	Irbis Kazan - Sarmaty Orenburzhya	2:0 ✺
26.01.23	Sarmaty Orenburzhya - Sibirskie Snaypery	3:2 ✺
25.01.23	Sarmaty Orenburzhya - Sibirskie Snaypery	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLLWL
- Tolpar Ufa
MHL
09.02.23	Ladya Togliatti - Tolpar	2:3 ✺
31.01.23	Mamonty Yugry - Tolpar	6:2 ✺
30.01.23	Mamonty Yugry - Tolpar	1:0 ✺
25.01.23	Molot Perm - Tolpar	2:3 OT ✺
23.01.23	Reaktor - Tolpar	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

MHL
18.09.22	Tolpar - Sarmaty Orenburzhya	5:2
07.03.22	Tolpar - Sarmaty Orenburzhya	2:3 penalties
06.03.22	Tolpar - Sarmaty Orenburzhya	2:3
08.12.21	Sarmaty Orenburzhya - Tolpar	3:6
07.12.21	Sarmaty Orenburzhya - Tolpar	3:2
16.02.21	Tolpar - Sarmaty Orenburzhya	7:1
15.02.21	Tolpar - Sarmaty Orenburzhya	7:2

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