Match Info

MHL

Date: 19 January 2026, Monday


	Ladya Togliatti		Tolpar

	1	X	2
	3.27	4.1	1.85	Watch
	3.4	4	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↑ (2.77)	4.05 ↑ (3.9)	1.81 ↓ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ladya Togliatti
27.2%

Draw
22.4%

Tolpar
50.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

23.5%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

24.3%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ladya Togliatti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ladya Togliatti's form might have worsened.

Tolpar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tolpar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ladya Togliatti than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tolpar than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tolpar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Ladya Togliatti - Tolpar Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ladya will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tolpar will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tolpar (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
70. Nikonovich M. (G)	94. Tkachyov K. (G)
6. Morozov A.	89. Shcherbakov N. (A)
14. Lineitsev D. (A)	76. Pykhtin D. (C)
17. Guryev V.	28. Akhsyanov B. (A)
75. Krikunenko A.	37. Zagrebin M.
37. Fyodorov V. (C)	67. Khabibullin A.
Line 2
95. Kharitonov G.	33. Agafonov M.
5. Petrov A.	23. Khafzetdinov A.
9. Vorfolomeyev M. (A)	9. Petrenko D.
90. Lisenkov M.	42. Koltsov N.
7. Pavlov M.	74. Adamyan A.
Line 3
96. Ivonin S.	16. Khusainov R.
21. Pshenitsyn D.	98. Zayets D.
91. Saranov P.	11. Shaykhlislamov A.
67. Malkov S.	87. Buzdyganov V.
68. Toft M.	75. Shebyakin M.
Line 4
79. Medvedev I.	4. Karpov A.
80. Gorshkov F.	26. Degtyarev M.
4. Umerenkov M.	18. Kireyev R.
97. Yegorov A.	10. Shermakov A.
Substitutes
71. Merkesov Y.	47. Fogelnest M.
20. Murashov N. (G)	99. Tkach-Tkachenko I. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
01:03, 0 - 1, Petrenko D. (G), Koltsov N. (A),
2nd Period (2 - 0)
02:15, 1 - 1, Kharitonov G. (G), Saranov P. (A), Petrov A. (A2)
08:17, 2 - 1, Kharitonov G. (G), Umerenkov M. (A),
3rd Period (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ladya won 3.

Ladya is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Tolpar has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tolpar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Tolpar has had a series of away games.

Tolpar will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Ladya will win today's game, with odds of 3.15.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ladya won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 47:56. (average 2.4:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ladya won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:14. (average 2.3:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ladya Togliatti
MHL
15.01.26	Molot Perm - Ladya Togliatti	2:4 ✺
14.01.26	Molot Perm - Ladya Togliatti	1:2 OT ✺
11.01.26	Ladya Togliatti - Molot Perm	4:1 ✺
10.01.26	Ladya Togliatti - Molot Perm	2:1 OT ✺
28.12.25	AKM Novomoskovsk - Ladya Togliatti	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWWW
- Tolpar Ufa
MHL
15.01.26	Chaika - Tolpar	1:2 OT ✺
13.01.26	Chaika - Tolpar	3:1 ✺
11.01.26	Irbis Kazan - Tolpar	6:3 ✺
10.01.26	Irbis Kazan - Tolpar	3:0 ✺
05.01.26	Tolpar - Molot Perm	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

MHL
05.11.25	Tolpar - Ladya Togliatti	3:1
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
11.08.25	Tolpar - Ladya Togliatti	1:4
10.08.25	Tolpar - Ladya Togliatti	3:5
MHL
18.12.24	Tolpar - Ladya Togliatti	2:5
29.11.24	Ladya Togliatti - Tolpar	2:5
19.09.24	Ladya Togliatti - Tolpar	1:2
14.09.24	Tolpar - Ladya Togliatti	2:1

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