Match Info

World Championship

Date: 25 May 2026, Monday

Location: BCF-Arena (Fribourg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	RDS App, TSN 2, TSN+
Czech-republic	CT sport, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Box Go, Polsat Sport 2
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1, Slovenia TV2
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	RTS 2, RTS 2, SRF Play, SRF Play
Usa	NHL Network
World	IIHF TV


	Slovenia		Italy

	1	X	2
	2.1	4.1	2.95	Watch
	1.95	4.25	3.1
	2.18	4.45	2.75	Watch
	2.17	4.38	2.75
	2.1	4.41	2.86	Watch
	2.05	4.2	2.7
	2.28	4.06	2.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.95)	4.26 ↑ (4.15)	2.85 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Slovenia
44.6%

Draw
22.2%

Italy
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

23%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

24.3%

47.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Slovenia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Slovenia's performance.

Italy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Italy might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Slovenia than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Slovenia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Italy than the current prediction. (+14%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Italy could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Slovenia - Italy Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Slovenia will win (votes: 17 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Slovenia: 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Slovenia will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
61. Horak L. (G) HK Olimpija	20. Clara D. (G) San Diego Gulls
17. Golicic J. Blainville-Boisbriand Armada	37. Pietroniro P. Kladno
15. Gregorc B. (A) HK Olimpija	55. Zanatta L. (A) Val Pusteria
55. Sabolic R. (C) HK Olimpija	13. Bradley M. Bolzano
46. Torok M. Ilves Tampere	19. Misley B. Bolzano
8. Mahkovec M. HK Olimpija	88. De Luca T. Ambri-Piotta
Line 2
29. Magovac A. Amiens	90. Di Perna D. Bolzano
44. Crnovic A. HK Olimpija	53. Trivellato A. (C) Schwenninger
92. Kuralt A. Fehervar AV19	71. Zanetti M. Lugano
24. Ticar R. (A) Val Pusteria	67. Frycklund M. Val Pusteria
13. Langus N. Augustana Vikings	18. Saracino N. Val Pusteria
Line 3
41. Cosic J. HK Olimpija	49. Nitz G. Hameenlinna
6. Stebih M. Trebic	10. Spornberger P. Iserlohn Roosters
21. Drozg J. HK Olimpija	34. Purdeller T. Val Pusteria
25. Maver L. Black Wings Linz	9. Mantenuto D. (A) Bolzano
18. Ograjensek K.	93. Frigo L. Bolzano
Line 4
26. Percic M. Slavia Prague	44. Gios G. Asiago
91. Jezovsek Z.	17. Buono C. Gherdeina
10. Bericic M. HK Olimpija	36. DiGiacinto C. Bolzano
23. Sodja J. HK Olimpija	46. Deluca I. Val Pusteria
	22. Mantinger M. Val Pusteria
Substitutes
12. Simsic N. HK Olimpija	35. Fadani D. (G) Kloten
33. Us Z. (G) Acroni Jesenice
Coaches
. Terglav E.	. Jalonen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (3 - 1)
02:34, 0 - 1, Pietroniro P. (G), Purdeller T. (A), Mantenuto D. (A2)
05:40, Golicic J. (2 min),
08:09, 1 - 1, Torok M. (G), Mahkovec M. (A),
09:54, De Luca T. (2 min),
10:03, 2 - 1, Drozg J. (G), Mahkovec M. (A), Sabolic R. (A2)
19:15, Saracino N. (2 min),
19:54, 3 - 1, Drozg J. (G), Mahkovec M. (A), Gregorc B. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 0)
05:11, Torok M. (2 min),
05:11, Langus N. (2 min),
05:11, DiGiacinto C. (2 min),
07:18, 4 - 1, Mahkovec M. (G), Torok M. (A), Sabolic R. (A2)
09:51, Purdeller T. (2 min),
10:33, Zanatta L. (2 min),
11:24, 5 - 1, Jezovsek Z. (G), Ograjensek K. (A), Ticar R. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Slovenia won 3.

In recent games, both teams have suffered a series of defeats.

Slovenia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Slovenia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Italy: Furlong C. (Off the roster)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Slovenia won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 51:32. (average 2.6:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Slovenia hockey
IIHF World Championship
23.05.26	Denmark - Slovenia	4:0 ✺
22.05.26	Canada - Slovenia	3:1 ✺
20.05.26	Sweden - Slovenia	6:0 ✺
19.05.26	Slovenia - Slovakia	4:5 penalties ✺
17.05.26	Norway - Slovenia	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Italy hockey
IIHF World Championship
24.05.26	Denmark - Italy	3:2 penalties ✺
22.05.26	Sweden - Italy	3:0 ✺
20.05.26	Czech Republic - Italy	3:1 ✺
19.05.26	Italy - Norway	0:4 ✺
17.05.26	Italy - Slovakia	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

European Cup of Nations Hockey
08.11.25	Italy - Slovenia	3:2
Ice Hockey International Tournament Poland
08.02.25	Slovenia - Italy	3:0
Ice Hockey International Tournament Hungary
07.11.24	Slovenia - Italy	0:2
IIHF World Championship IA
01.05.24	Slovenia - Italy	2:0
Friendly International Ice Hockey
09.02.24	Italy - Slovenia	1:2 penalties
08.02.24	Italy - Slovenia	1:5
Ice Hockey International Tournament Hungary
09.11.23	Slovenia - Italy	0:1

Slovenia - Italy: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide