Match Info

MHL

Date: 5 November 2025, Wednesday


	Tolpar		Ladya Togliatti

	1	X	2
	1.68	4.5	3.8
	1.66	4.45	3.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.68)	4.48 ↑ (4.45)	3.81 ↑ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tolpar
55.2%

Draw
20.6%

Ladya Togliatti
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.7%

20.7%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

20.2%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tolpar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Ladya Togliatti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tolpar than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ladya Togliatti than the current prediction. (+1%)

Tolpar - Ladya Togliatti Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Yelin I. (G)	20. Murashov N. (G)
89. Shcherbakov N.	96. Ivonin S.
76. Pykhtin D. (A)	12. Kalimullin M.
10. Shermakov A.	91. Saranov P.
37. Zagrebin M. (C)	13. Bazhukhin A. (A)
28. Akhsyanov B. (A)	37. Fyodorov V. (C)
Line 2
23. Khafzetdinov A.	95. Kharitonov G.
86. Volkov D.	14. Lineitsev D.
9. Petrenko D.	17. Guryev V.
42. Koltsov N.	90. Lisenkov M.
87. Buzdyganov V.	9. Vorfolomeyev M. (A)
Line 3
24. Karasyov M.	21. Pshenitsyn D.
36. Gunkin Y.	79. Medvedev I.
18. Kireyev R.	23. Ambrosov V.
67. Khabibullin A.	24. Abramov Y.
47. Fogelnest M.	80. Gorshkov F.
Line 4
16. Khusainov R.	16. Borodatov V.
98. Zayets D.	88. Stashevsky N.
63. Makarkin A.	97. Yegorov A.
26. Degtyarev M.	71. Merkesov Y.
75. Shebyakin M.	85. Shcherbakov A.
Substitutes
94. Tkachyov K. (G)	27. Gorbenko Y. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
03:09, 1 - 0, Shebyakin M. (G), Makarkin A. (A), Gunkin Y. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 1)
03:07, 1 - 1, Bazhukhin A. (G), Guryev V. (A), Kalimullin M. (A2)
11:59, 2 - 1, Buzdyganov V. (G), Khafzetdinov A. (A), Petrenko D. (A2)
14:00, 3 - 1, Zagrebin M. (G), Volkov D. (A), Akhsyanov B. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tolpar won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Ladya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Ladya has had a series of home games.

In this match, Tolpar is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tolpar won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 56:48. (average 2.8:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Tolpar won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 39:32. (average 3:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tolpar Ufa
MHL
02.11.25	Mamonty Yugry - Tolpar	4:3 OT ✺
01.11.25	Mamonty Yugry - Tolpar	3:2 ✺
29.10.25	Belye Medvedi - Tolpar	3:2 penalties ✺
26.10.25	Tolpar - Avto	7:3 ✺
25.10.25	Tolpar - Avto	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLWW
- Ladya Togliatti
MHL
02.11.25	Stalnye Lisy - Ladya Togliatti	3:2 ✺
25.10.25	Ladya Togliatti - Amurskie Tigry	4:2 ✺
21.10.25	Ladya Togliatti - Sputnik Almetyevsk	7:4 ✺
18.10.25	Ladya Togliatti - Reaktor	3:4 OT ✺
15.10.25	Ladya Togliatti - AKM Novomoskovsk	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Ice Hockey
11.08.25	Tolpar - Ladya Togliatti	1:4
10.08.25	Tolpar - Ladya Togliatti	3:5
MHL
18.12.24	Tolpar - Ladya Togliatti	2:5
29.11.24	Ladya Togliatti - Tolpar	2:5
19.09.24	Ladya Togliatti - Tolpar	1:2
14.09.24	Tolpar - Ladya Togliatti	2:1
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
10.08.24	Tolpar - Ladya Togliatti	4:1

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