Match Info

MHL

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday


	Belye Medvedi		Tolpar

	1	X	2
	3.43	4.2	1.85
	3.23	4.25	1.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↑ (2.27)	4.23 ↑ (4.05)	1.85 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belye Medvedi
27.8%

Draw
21.9%

Tolpar
50.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

22.5%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

24.3%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belye Medvedi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Belye Medvedi's form might have worsened.

Tolpar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tolpar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belye Medvedi than the current prediction. (+15.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Belye Medvedi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tolpar than the current prediction. (-15.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tolpar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Belye Medvedi - Tolpar Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tolpar (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Podomatsky M. (G)	94. Tkachyov K. (G)
27. Kovalenko A.	86. Volkov D.
38. Karyayev K. (C)	76. Pykhtin D. (C)
44. Kozhevnikov R.	11. Shaykhlislamov A.
55. Rastorguyev S.	37. Zagrebin M.
77. Gataullin A.	28. Akhsyanov B. (A)
Line 2
7. Semenikhin M.	89. Shcherbakov N.
65. Borbuzanov G. (A)	33. Agafonov M.
64. Kulagin A.	9. Petrenko D.
41. Yeust V. (A)	87. Buzdyganov V.
62. Popov Y.	75. Shebyakin M.
Line 3
63. Shestakov M.	36. Gunkin Y.
86. Sivirchukov V.	23. Khafzetdinov A.
61. Kozyrskikh M.	79. Nabiev A.
28. Yerofeyev M.	42. Koltsov N.
24. Mangustov I.	67. Khabibullin A. (A)
Line 4
59. Shagalov A.	24. Karasyov M.
21. Dubovets Y.	16. Khusainov R.
32. Dray A.	63. Makarkin A.
50. Sorokin A.	18. Kireyev R.
	74. Adamyan A.
Substitutes
84. Borov M. (G)	99. Tkach-Tkachenko I. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
03:16, 1 - 0, Rastorguyev S. (G), Kozhevnikov R. (A),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
07:15, 1 - 1, Buzdyganov V. (G), Petrenko D. (A), Shcherbakov N. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 1)
05:29, 2 - 1, Gataullin A. (G), Rastorguyev S. (A), Sivirchukov V. (A2)
13:21, 2 - 2, Nabiev A. (G), Pykhtin D. (A),
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (1 - 0)
1, Akhsyanov B. (Penalty Shot),
1, Dubovets Y. (Penalty Shot),
2, Buzdyganov V. (Penalty Shot),
2, Kovalenko A. (Penalty Shot),
3, Nabiev A. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

Belye Medvedi is Qualified for MHL (Play Offs )

Tolpar is Qualified for MHL (Play Offs )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Belye Medvedi won 1.

Belye Medvedi has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tolpar is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Belye Medvedi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Belye Medvedi has had a series of away games.

Recently, Tolpar has had a series of home games.

Tolpar might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Belye Medvedi won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 63:67. (average 3.2:3.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Belye Medvedi won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:17. (average 3.1:2.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Tolpar - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 37.35%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Belye Medvedi
MHL
15.03.26	Chaika - Belye Medvedi	6:1 ✺
14.03.26	Chaika - Belye Medvedi	2:1 penalties ✺
11.03.26	Irbis Kazan - Belye Medvedi	2:3 ✺
09.03.26	Irbis Kazan - Belye Medvedi	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	AKM Novomoskovsk - Belye Medvedi	6:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 LLWWW
- Tolpar Ufa
MHL
14.03.26	Tolpar - Snezhnye Barsy	3:0 ✺
11.03.26	Tolpar - Mamonty Yugry	4:0 ✺
10.03.26	Tolpar - Mamonty Yugry	1:2 OT ✺
07.03.26	Tolpar - Krasnoyarskie Rysi	4:2 ✺
05.03.26	Tolpar - Sibirskie Snaypery	7:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

MHL
25.01.26	Tolpar - Belye Medvedi	6:2
10.11.25	Tolpar - Belye Medvedi	3:2
29.10.25	Belye Medvedi - Tolpar	3:2 penalties
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
26.08.25	Tolpar - Belye Medvedi	5:2
MHL
10.03.25	Belye Medvedi - Tolpar	2:5
15.11.24	Tolpar - Belye Medvedi	5:4
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
20.08.24	Tolpar - Belye Medvedi	4:2

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