Match Info

SM-sarja U20

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday


	Vaasan Sport U20		Kärpät U20

	1	X	2
	2.8	4.2	1.8
	3.02	3.81	1.84
	3.19	4.12	1.88	Watch
	3.1	4	1.8
	3.13	4.05	1.88
	2.85	4.3	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.81)	4.08 ↑ (3.99)	1.84 ↓ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vaasan Sport U20
29.6%

Draw
21.9%

Kärpät U20
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

23.1%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

24.7%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vaasan Sport U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Kärpät U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vaasan Sport U20 than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vaasan Sport U20, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kärpät U20 than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kärpät U20, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Vaasan Sport U20 - Kärpät U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
00:32, 1 - 0, Ekman T. (G), Flugins K. (A), Lassander J. (A2)
08:50, 1 - 1, Blazek V. (G), Vierimaa W. (A),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
10:54, 1 - 2, Peipinen H. (G), Martinmaki K. (A), Vierimaa W. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
06:57, 2 - 2, Ekman T. (Penalty Shot),
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (3 - 1)
1, Jurvelin L. (Penalty Shot),
1, Lassander J. (Penalty Shot),
2, Jung S. (Penalty Shot),
2, Andrey T. (Penalty Shot),
3, Salovaara E. (Penalty Shot),
3, Mourujarvi E. (Penalty Shot),
4, Viita F. (Penalty Shot),
4, Flugins K. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vaasan Sport U20 won 2.

Vaasan Sport U20 is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Kärpät U20 has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Kärpät U20 will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vaasan Sport U20 won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 47:86. (average 2.4:4.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Vaasan Sport U20 won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:33. (average 2.4:3.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
7	Karpat U20	12	5	3	0	4	40:35	21
16	Vaasan Sport U20	9	1	1	1	6	29:37	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vaasan Sport U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
30.01.26	Ässät U20 - Vaasan Sport U20	3:4 ✺
23.01.26	Vaasan Sport U20 - Lukko U20	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Vaasan Sport U20 - Tappara U20	1:5 ✺
16.01.26	Vaasan Sport U20 - Mikkelin Jukurit U20	3:6 ✺
10.01.26	HPK U20 - Vaasan Sport U20	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLLLL
- Kärpät U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
30.01.26	Kärpät U20 - Pelicans U20	3:2 ✺
24.01.26	Tappara U20 - Kärpät U20	6:1 ✺
23.01.26	Ilves U20 - Kärpät U20	4:3 OT ✺
16.01.26	RoKi U20 - Kärpät U20	2:7 ✺
10.01.26	Kärpät U20 - SaiPa U20	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
07.12.25	Vaasan Sport U20 - Kärpät U20	4:2
25.10.25	Kärpät U20 - Vaasan Sport U20	3:1
13.09.25	Kärpät U20 - Vaasan Sport U20	2:3
15.02.25	Kärpät U20 - Vaasan Sport U20	6:3
10.01.25	Kärpät U20 - Vaasan Sport U20	4:2
01.11.24	Vaasan Sport U20 - Kärpät U20	2:1 penalties
12.10.24	Vaasan Sport U20 - Kärpät U20	5:4 OT

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