Match Info

BANTAMWEIGHT - MEN: PFL

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday

Location: Wintrust Arena (Chicago, IL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport


	Sarvadzhon Khamidov		Rafael do Nascimento

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Sarvadzhon Khamidov
78.8%

Rafael do Nascimento
21.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

71.1%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarvadzhon Khamidov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sarvadzhon Khamidov's performance.

Rafael do Nascimento has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rafael do Nascimento might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

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Khamidov carries the favorite tag into this contest.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarvadzhon Khamidov
MMA
27.06.26	Justin Wetzell - Sarvadzhon Khamidov	Khamidov S. - 2nd Round TKO ✺
20.06.25	Magomed Magomedov - Sarvadzhon Khamidov	Magomedov M. win ✺
22.06.24	Sarvadzhon Khamidov - Marcirley Alves	Khamidov S. win ✺
12.05.23	Sarvadzhon Khamidov - Kevin Petshi	Khamidov S. - 3rd Round TKO ✺
29.10.22	Sarvadzhon Khamidov - José Maria Tomé	Khamidov S. - 1st Round TKO ✺
- Rafael do Nascimento
MMA
18.07.26	Lewis McGrillen-Evans - Rafael do Nascimento	do Nascimento R. - 2nd Round TKO ✺

Sarvadzhon Khamidov - Rafael do Nascimento: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide