What is the expert prediction for Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, March 28, 2026)

Match Info

LIGHTWEIGHT - MEN: UFC

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	See
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
Ukraine	Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 1


	Terrance McKinney		Kyle Nelson

	1	2
	1.54	2.55
	1.69	2.2
	1.54	2.54
	1.53	2.66
			Watch
	1.57	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.7)	2.46 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 0.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Terrance McKinney
61%

Kyle Nelson
39%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Terrance McKinney has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Kyle Nelson has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. McKinney will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

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Preview

McKinney might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the fighters have not faced each other.

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Terrance McKinney
MMA
06.12.25	Terrance McKinney - Chris Duncan	Duncan C. - 1st Round TKO ✺
28.06.25	Terrance McKinney - Viacheslav Borshchev	McKinney T. - 1st Round TKO ✺
01.02.25	Terrance McKinney - Damir Hadzovic	McKinney T. - 1st Round TKO ✺
11.05.24	Terrance McKinney - Esteban Ribovics	Ribovics E. - 1st Round KO ✺
14.10.23	Terrance McKinney - Chris Duncan	Canceled ✺
- Kyle Nelson
MMA
18.10.25	Kyle Nelson - Matt Frevola	Nelson K. win ✺
07.09.24	Steve Garcia - Kyle Nelson	Garcia S. - 1st Round TKO ✺
30.03.24	Bill Algeo - Kyle Nelson	Nelson K. - 1st Round TKO ✺
16.09.23	Fernando Padilla - Kyle Nelson	Nelson K. win ✺
10.06.23	Kyle Nelson - Blake Bilder	Nelson K. win ✺

Terrance McKinney - Kyle Nelson: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide