Match Info

BANTAMWEIGHT - MEN: UFC

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Etihad Arena (Abu Dhabi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Sport 2, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay


	Umar Nurmagomedov		Mario Bautista

	1	2
	1.14	6
	1.18	4.5
	1.17	5.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.16 ↓ (1.2)	5.34 ↑ (4.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Umar Nurmagomedov
82.1%

Mario Bautista
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

79%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Umar Nurmagomedov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Mario Bautista has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	0%	15.4%

Umar Nurmagomedov - Mario Bautista Predictions

Users Predictions: Umar Nurmagomedov will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Umar Nurmagomedov will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

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Preview

In this match, Nurmagomedov is the undisputed favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the fighters.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Umar Nurmagomedov
MMA
18.01.25	Merab Dvalishvili - Umar Nurmagomedov	Dvalishvili M. win ✺
03.08.24	Cory Sandhagen - Umar Nurmagomedov	Nurmagomedov U. win ✺
02.03.24	Umar Nurmagomedov - Bekzat Almakhan	Nurmagomedov U. win ✺
05.08.23	Cory Sandhagen - Umar Nurmagomedov	Canceled ✺
14.01.23	Umar Nurmagomedov - Raoni Barcelos	Nurmagomedov U. - 1st Round KO ✺
- Mario Bautista
MMA
07.06.25	Mario Bautista - Patrick Mix	Bautista M. win ✺
07.06.25	Marlon Vera - Mario Bautista	Canceled ✺
05.10.24	Jose Aldo - Mario Bautista	Bautista M. win ✺
13.01.24	Ricky Simon - Mario Bautista	Bautista M. win ✺
19.08.23	DaMon Blackshear - Mario Bautista	Bautista M. win ✺

Umar Nurmagomedov - Mario Bautista: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide