Match Info

LIGHTWEIGHT - MEN: PFL

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Coca-Cola Arena (Dubai)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Slovakia	Voyo


	Usman Nurmagomedov		Paul Hughes

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Usman Nurmagomedov
71.5%

Paul Hughes
28.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

66.4%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Usman Nurmagomedov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Usman Nurmagomedov's performance.

Paul Hughes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paul Hughes might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

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Nurmagomedov Usman defending title.

In this match, Nurmagomedov is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nurmagomedov won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Usman Nurmagomedov
MMA
25.01.25	Usman Nurmagomedov - Paul Hughes	Nurmagomedov U. win ✺
07.09.24	Usman Nurmagomedov - Alexander Shabliy	Nurmagomedov U. win ✺
17.05.24	Usman Nurmagomedov - Alexander Shabliy	Canceled ✺
08.10.23	Usman Nurmagomedov - Brent Primus	Nurmagomedov U. win ✺
10.03.23	Usman Nurmagomedov - Benson Henderson	Nurmagomedov U. - 1st Round TKO ✺
- Paul Hughes
MMA
10.05.25	Paul Hughes - Bruno Miranda	Hughes P. - 1st Round TKO ✺
25.01.25	Usman Nurmagomedov - Paul Hughes	Nurmagomedov U. win ✺
19.10.24	AJ McKee - Paul Hughes	Hughes P. win ✺
22.06.24	Paul Hughes - Bobby King	Hughes P. - 2nd Round TKO ✺
06.04.24	Paul Hughes - Fabiano Silva	Hughes P. - 1st Round TKO ✺

MMA
25.01.25	Usman Nurmagomedov - Paul Hughes	Nurmagomedov U. win

Usman Nurmagomedov - Paul Hughes: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide