Match Info

Rugby Championship - Round 6

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Optus Stadium (Perth)

Referee: Carley M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Nine
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
United-kingdom	Sky Go
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Australia		New Zealand

	1	X	2
	2.45	21	1.6
	2.5	21	1.57
	2.5	22	1.55
	2.04	21.82	1.83	Watch
	2.59	19	1.55
	2.5	22	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (2.81)	21.14 ↓ (29)	1.61 ↑ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Australia
38.1%

Draw
4.4%

New Zealand
57.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

3.2%

63.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

3.4%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Australia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

New Zealand has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and New Zealand might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Australia than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for New Zealand than the current prediction. (+3%)

Australia - New Zealand Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. New Zealand (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:28

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Slipper J.	1. Williams T.
2. Pollard B.	2. Taylor C.
3. Alaalatoa A.	3. Newell F.
4. Frost N.	4. Barrett S.
5. Skelton W.	5. Holland F.
6. Hooper T.	6. Parker S.
7. Mcreight F.	7. Savea A.
8. Wilson H.	8. Lakai P.
9. Gordon J.	9. Roigard C.
10. Edmed T.	10. McKenzie D.
11. Daugunu F.	11. Faingaanuku L.
12. Ikitau L.	12. Barrett J.
13. Sua'ali'i J.	13. Tupaea Q.
14. Potter H.	14. Carter L.
15. Jorgensen M.	15. Jordan W.
Substitutes
16. Nasser J.	16. Taukei'aho S.
17. Robertson T.	17. Bower G.
18. Tupou T.	18. Tosi P.
19. Williams J.	19. Tuipulotu P.
20. Valetini R.	20. Sititi W.
21. Lonergan R.	21. Ratima C.
22. O'Connor J.	22. Ioane R.
23. Flook J.	23. Love R.
Coaches
. Schmidt J.	. Robertson S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (9 - 17)
5', Edmed T. (Penalty Goal),
7', Carter L. (Try),
8', McKenzie D. (Conversion Goal),
10', Edmed T. (Penalty Goal),
11', Hooper T. 🟨,
14', Skelton W. ↓, Williams J. ↑,
16', Edmed T. (Penalty Goal),
32', Tupaea Q. (Try),
33', McKenzie D. (Missed Conversion),
35', Tupaea Q. (Try),
36', McKenzie D. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (5 - 11)
41', Slipper J. ↓, Tupou T. ↑,
41', Alaalatoa A. ↓, Robertson T. ↑,
44', Ikitau L. 🟨,
51', Holland F. ↓, Tuipulotu P. ↑,
52', Frost N. ↓, Valetini R. ↑,
56', Tupaea Q. ↓, Ioane R. ↑,
57', Gordon J. ↓, Lonergan R. ↑,
61', Taylor C. ↓, Taukei'aho S. ↑,
62', Pollard B. ↓, Nasser J. ↑,
62', Lakai P. ↓, Sititi W. ↑,
62', McKenzie D. (Penalty Goal),
66', Williams T. ↓, Bower G. ↑,
66', Newell F. ↓, Tosi P. ↑,
66', Ikitau L. (Try),
66', Edmed T. (Missed Conversion),
70', McKenzie D. (Penalty Goal),
71', Potter H. ↓, Flook J. ↑,
72', Mcreight F. ↓, O'Connor J. ↑,
73', Roigard C. ↓, Ratima C. ↑,
73', Faingaanuku L. ↓, Love R. ↑,
80', Bower G. (Try),
80', Flook J. ↓, Frost N. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 3 and 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Australia won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

New Zealand will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Australia won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 16 matches, and goals 355:650. (average 17.8:32.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Australia rugby
Rugby Championship
27.09.25	New Zealand - Australia	33:24 ✺
13.09.25	Australia - Argentina	26:28 ✺
06.09.25	Australia - Argentina	28:24 ✺
23.08.25	South Africa - Australia	30:22 ✺
16.08.25	South Africa - Australia	22:38 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 LLWLW
- New Zealand rugby
Rugby Championship
27.09.25	New Zealand - Australia	33:24 ✺
13.09.25	New Zealand - South Africa	10:43 ✺
06.09.25	New Zealand - South Africa	24:17 ✺
23.08.25	Argentina - New Zealand	29:23 ✺
16.08.25	Argentina - New Zealand	24:41 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Rugby Championship
27.09.25	New Zealand - Australia	33:24
28.09.24	New Zealand - Australia	33:13
21.09.24	Australia - New Zealand	28:31
Friendly International Rugby Union
04.08.23	New Zealand - Australia	23:20
Rugby Championship
29.07.23	Australia - New Zealand	7:38
24.09.22	New Zealand - Australia	40:14
15.09.22	Australia - New Zealand	37:39

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