Match Info

NPC - Round 10

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tauranga and Wharepai Domains (Tauranga) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	SuperSport Rugby
Argentina	00:35	Disney+
Australia	14:35	Stan Sport
Brazil	00:35	Disney+
Chile	00:35	Disney+
Colombia	22:35	Disney+
Mexico	21:35	Disney+
New Zealand	16:35	Sky Sport 1
Nigeria	04:35	SuperSport Rugby
Peru	22:35	Disney+
South Africa	05:35	SuperSport CSN, SuperSport Rugby
Uruguay	00:35	Disney+
Venezuela	23:35	Disney+
International	03:35	RugbyPass TV


	Bay of Plenty		North Harbour

	1	X	2
	1.77	23	2.08
	1.8	19	2	Watch
	1.7	20	1.99
	1.8	19	2.1	Watch
	1.77	23	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.6)	20.8 ↓ (21)	2.05 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 61.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bay of Plenty
51.3%

Draw
4.4%

North Harbour
44.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56%

4.3%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

4.6%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bay of Plenty has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

North Harbour has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bay of Plenty than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bay of Plenty, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for North Harbour than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for North Harbour, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Bay of Plenty - North Harbour Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:30

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 14)
2nd Half (21 - 7)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bay of Plenty won 5.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Bay of Plenty could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Our forecast points to a victory for Bay of Plenty in today's match, at odds of 1.67.

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Bay of Plenty has recorded 7 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 250:214 (averaging 27.8:23.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bay of Plenty against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 102:78 goals (averaging 25.5:19.5 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bay of Plenty
New Zealand NPC
24.09.26	Tasman - Bay of Plenty	45:26 ✺
18.09.26	Bay of Plenty - Hawkes Bay	32:17 ✺
13.09.26	Southland - Bay of Plenty	43:12 ✺
04.09.26	Bay of Plenty - Manawatu	12:29 ✺
28.08.26	Auckland - Bay of Plenty	19:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LWLLW
- North Harbour
New Zealand NPC
26.09.26	North Harbour - Otago	32:21 ✺
19.09.26	North Harbour - Canterbury	24:25 ✺
12.09.26	Hawkes Bay - North Harbour	24:31 ✺
06.09.26	North Harbour - Northland	57:42 ✺
29.08.26	Manawatu - North Harbour	43:40 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
29.08.25	North Harbour - Bay of Plenty	7:19
17.08.24	Bay of Plenty - North Harbour	24:20
10.09.22	North Harbour - Bay of Plenty	34:48
14.11.20	Bay of Plenty - North Harbour	37:33
31.08.19	North Harbour - Bay of Plenty	19:27
15.09.18	North Harbour - Bay of Plenty	32:20
30.09.16	North Harbour - Bay of Plenty	44:34

Bay of Plenty - North Harbour: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide