Match Info

Pro D2 - Round 23

Date: 6 March 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ Sport


	Biarritz		Provence Rugby

	1	X	2
	1.75	19	2.2
	1.69	21	2.23
	1.71	20.11	2.27	Watch
	1.73	21	2.2
	1.74	19.1	2.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.96)	20.04 ↑ (17.94)	2.22 ↑ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 44.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Biarritz
53.7%

Draw
4.6%

Provence Rugby
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

5.2%

47.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

5.4%

45.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Biarritz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Biarritz's performance.

Provence Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Provence Rugby might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Biarritz than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Provence Rugby than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:21

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 13)
2nd Half (16 - 5)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Biarritz won 1.

Biarritz is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Provence Rugby has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Biarritz won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 270:337. (average 19.3:24.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Biarritz won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 170:112. (average 24.3:16).

Outrights of French Pro D2 for now

Provence Rugby: 35.28% Biarritz Olympique: 7.94%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
2	Provence Rugby	6	6	0	0	188:134	25
5	Biarritz Olympique	6	4	0	2	186:164	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Biarritz Olympique
French Pro D2
27.02.26	Mont-De-Marsan - Biarritz	34:16 ✺
20.02.26	Biarritz - Vannes	33:40 ✺
13.02.26	Valence Romans Drôme - Biarritz	15:9 ✺
30.01.26	Biarritz - FC Grenoble	25:15 ✺
23.01.26	US Dax - Biarritz	24:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLWL
- Provence Rugby
French Pro D2
27.02.26	Provence Rugby - Agen	22:24 ✺
20.02.26	US Dax - Provence Rugby	33:21 ✺
13.02.26	Provence Rugby - Oyonnax Rugby	35:34 ✺
30.01.26	Carcassonne - Provence Rugby	19:23 ✺
23.01.26	Provence Rugby - Stade Aurillacois	26:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
12.09.25	Provence Rugby - Biarritz	52:8
09.05.25	Provence Rugby - Biarritz	46:14
15.11.24	Biarritz - Provence Rugby	25:0
10.05.24	Biarritz - Provence Rugby	16:27
15.12.23	Provence Rugby - Biarritz	29:21
24.02.23	Provence Rugby - Biarritz	37:17
25.11.22	Biarritz - Provence Rugby	20:8

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