Match Info

Pro D2 - Round 21

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Canal+ Live 6


	US Dax		Provence Rugby

	1	X	2
	2.05	19	1.83
	2.04	22	1.81
	2.06	20.13	1.85	Watch
	2.1	21	1.8
	2	15	1.8
	2.12	21	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.78)	19.69 ↑ (18)	1.81 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 42.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

US Dax
44.6%

Draw
4.7%

Provence Rugby
50.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

44.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

5.1%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

US Dax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that US Dax's form might have worsened.

Provence Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Provence Rugby's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for US Dax than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for US Dax, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Provence Rugby than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Provence Rugby, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

US Dax - Provence Rugby Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Provence will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 42.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:22

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (13 - 14)
2nd Half (20 - 7)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, US Dax won 1.

US Dax has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Provence Rugby is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, US Dax won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 160:270. (average 20:33.8).

Including home matches between the teams, US Dax won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 90:94. (average 22.5:23.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Provence Rugby	5	5	0	0	160:108	21
7	US Dax	5	3	0	2	185:187	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Dax
French Pro D2
13.02.26	US Dax - Stade Aurillacois	19:15 ✺
30.01.26	Béziers - US Dax	10:6 ✺
23.01.26	US Dax - Biarritz	24:15 ✺
16.01.26	Carcassonne - US Dax	20:15 ✺
09.01.26	US Dax - Agen	20:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLWLW
- Provence Rugby
French Pro D2
13.02.26	Provence Rugby - Oyonnax Rugby	35:34 ✺
30.01.26	Carcassonne - Provence Rugby	19:23 ✺
23.01.26	Provence Rugby - Stade Aurillacois	26:10 ✺
16.01.26	Nevers - Provence Rugby	10:45 ✺
08.01.26	Provence Rugby - FC Grenoble	45:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
26.09.25	Provence Rugby - US Dax	42:15
04.04.25	Provence Rugby - US Dax	57:0
12.12.24	US Dax - Provence Rugby	23:22
12.01.24	Provence Rugby - US Dax	54:26
18.08.23	US Dax - Provence Rugby	16:41
26.02.16	Provence Rugby - US Dax	23:29
16.10.15	US Dax - Provence Rugby	26:19

Upcoming Matches