Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 4

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Ashton Gate Stadium (Bristol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Malta	TSN Malta 1
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Portugal	Sport TV7
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloRugby.com, FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player


	Bristol Rugby		Bordeaux Bègles

	1	X	2
	3.4	26	1.33
	3.25	29	1.33
	3.38	22.64	1.36	Watch
	3.4	23	1.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.36 ↓ (3.58)	25.16 ↑ (22.67)	1.34 ↑ (1.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 63.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bristol Rugby
27.4%

Draw
3.7%

Bordeaux Bègles
68.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.7%

4.1%

70.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

3.2%

54.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bristol Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Bordeaux Bègles has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bristol Rugby than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bristol Rugby, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bordeaux Bègles than the current prediction. (-14.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bordeaux Bègles, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Bristol Rugby - Bordeaux Bègles Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -8.5 - Bordeaux Bègles (1.87) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 66.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bordeaux Bègles (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:35

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaddouri A.	1. Poirot J.
2. Latu T.	2. Lamothe M. (C)
3. Atonio U. (C)	3. Sadie C.
4. Kante-Samba C.	4. Palu B.
5. Boudehent P.	5. Coleman A.
6. Jegou O.	6. Preez J.
7. Botia L.	7. Woki C.
8. Cancoriet J.	8. Matiu T.
9. Berjon T.	9. Page-Relo M.
10. West I.	10. Jalibert M.
11. Bollengier N.	11. Bielle-Biarrey L.
12. Daunivucu S.	12. Moefana Y.
13. Seuteni U.	13. Depoortere N.
14. Niniashvili D.	14. Penaud D.
15. Leyds D.	15. Buros R.
Substitutes
16. Lespiaucq-Brettes Q.	16. Sa C.
17. Wardi R.	17. Boniface U.
18. Sclavi J.	18. Tameifuna B.
19. Kuntelia A.	19. Cazeaux C.
20. Alldritt G.	20. Vergnes-Taillefer B.
21. Fraindt K.	21. Carbery J.
22. Favre J.	22. Janse van Rensburg R.
23. Nowell J.	23. Rayasi S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (5 - 17)
10', Oghre G. (Try),
14', Bielle-Biarrey L. (Try),
22', Bielle-Biarrey L. (Try),
23', Jalibert M. (Conversion Goal),
30', Coleman A. (Try),
2nd Half (10 - 10)
64', Janse van Rensburg B. (Try),
65', Worsley S. (Conversion Goal),
66', Jalibert M. (Penalty Goal),
73', Worsley S. (Penalty Goal),
79', Bielle-Biarrey L. (Try),
80', Jalibert M. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Bristol is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Bordeaux Bègles is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Bordeaux Bègles may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Bordeaux Bègles has had a series of home games.

In this match, Bordeaux Bègles is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Bristol won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 71:92. (average 23.7:30.7).

Including home match between the teams, Bristol won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 37:20.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bristol Rugby
European Rugby Champions Cup
10.01.26	Blue Bulls - Bristol Rugby	49:61 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
02.01.26	Bristol Rugby - Sale Sharks	19:17 ✺
27.12.25	Bristol Rugby - Newcastle Red Bulls	36:27 ✺
20.12.25	Harlequins - Bristol Rugby	14:40 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.25	Bristol Rugby - Section Paloise	61:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.5 WWWWW
- Union Bordeaux Bègles
European Rugby Champions Cup
11.01.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Northampton Saints	50:28 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Racing Métro	62:20 ✺
27.12.25	Clermont - Bordeaux Bègles	34:19 ✺
21.12.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulon	46:7 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Llanelli Scarlets	50:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
16.12.23	Bordeaux Bègles - Bristol Rugby	36:17
04.04.21	Bordeaux Bègles - Bristol Rugby	36:17
Challenge Cup Rugby
25.09.20	Bristol Rugby - Bordeaux Bègles	37:20 OT

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