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Current Win Probability
Harlequins 54.3%
Draw 4.1%
Bristol Rugby 41.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
58.9%
4.1%
37%
Our Initial ML Estimation
72.6%
5.1%
30%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Harlequins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)
Bristol Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Harlequins than the current prediction. (+18.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Harlequins, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bristol Rugby than the current prediction. (-11.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bristol Rugby, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Harlequins - Bristol Rugby Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 33:31
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Hobson W.
1. Genge E.
2. Walker J.
2. Oghre G.
3. Williams H.
3. Chawatama L.
4. Petti G.
4. Rubiolo P.
5. Treadwell K.
5. Batley J.
6. Carr Z.
6. Owen J.
7. Kenningham J.
7. Grondona B.
8. Cunningham-South C.
8. Harding F.
9. Porter W.
9. Marmion K.
10. Smith M.
10. Jordan T.
11. Murley C.
11. Ravouvou K.
12. Northmore L.
12. Williams J.
13. Beard O.
13. Janse van Rensburg B.
14. Cleaves C.
14. Boshoff A.
15. David N.
15. Rees-Zammit L.
Substitutes
16. Riley S.
16. Thacker H.
17. Baxter F.
17. Woolmore J.
18. Delgado P.
18. Kloska G.
19. Launchbury J.
19. Taylor G.
20. Evans W.
20. Randall H.
21. Friday L.
21. Worsley S.
22. Waghorn B.
22. Heward N.
23. Isgro R.
Coaches
. Gilmore J.
. Lam P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 26)
7', Ravouvou K. (Try),
8', Jordan T. (Missed Conversion),
25', Batley J. (Try),
26', Jordan T. (Conversion Goal),
31', Oghre G. (Try),
32', Jordan T. (Conversion Goal),
40+1', Rees-Zammit L. (Try),
40+2', Jordan T. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (14 - 14)
41', Carr Z. ↓, Evans W. ↑,
43', Walker J. 🟨,
43', Grondona B. (Try),
44', Jordan T. (Conversion Goal),
48', Cunningham-South C. ↓, Riley S. ↑,
51', Oghre G. ↓, Thacker H. ↑,
51', Chawatama L. ↓, Kloska G. ↑,
51', Genge E. ↓, Woolmore J. ↑,
51', Cleaves C. ↓, Isgro R. ↑,
51', Northmore L. ↓, Waghorn B. ↑,
53', Williams H. ↓, Delgado P. ↑,
57', Owen J. ↓, Grondona B. ↑,
57', Jordan T. 🟨,
58', Grondona B. ↓, Taylor G. ↑,
59', Isgro R. (Try),
60', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
60', Marmion K. ↓, Randall H. ↑,
60', Porter W. ↓, Friday L. ↑,
62', Williams J. (Missed Penalty),
63', Genge E. (Try),
64', Williams J. (Conversion Goal),
64', Boshoff A. ↓, Heward N. ↑,
64', Treadwell K. ↓, Launchbury J. ↑,
64', Hobson W. ↓, Wenger B. ↑,
70', Ravouvou K. ↓, Worsley S. ↑,
70', Williams J. 🟨,
73', Smith M. (Try),
74', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ European Rugby Champions Cup and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ European Rugby Champions Cup).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Harlequins won 1.
Harlequins has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Bristol's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins โ 3).
Harlequins is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Harlequins won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 484:501. (average 28.5:29.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Harlequins won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 238:241. (average 26.4:26.8).
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Czech-republic
Mexico
New-zealand
Peru
Slovakia
United-kingdom
Uruguay
Venezuela
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Hobson W. 
Chawatama L. 
Petti G. 
Treadwell K. 
Jordan T. 
Ravouvou K. 
Janse van Rensburg B. 
Rees-Zammit L. 
Heward N. 
Gilmore J. 
Lam P. 
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