Match Info

Pro D2 - Round 11

Date: 14 November 2025, Friday


	Carcassonne		Valence Romans Drôme

	1	X	2
	2.63	19	1.53
	2.32	23	1.62
	2.06	20.13	1.85	Watch
	2.35	24	1.64
	2.05	20	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.07)	21.23 ↑ (19.67)	1.7 ↓ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 46.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carcassonne
40.8%

Draw
4.4%

Valence Romans Drôme
54.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

4.6%

51.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

4.9%

48.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carcassonne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Valence Romans Drôme has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carcassonne than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carcassonne, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valence Romans Drôme than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Valence Romans Drôme, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Carcassonne - Valence Romans Drôme Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:25

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 22)
2nd Half (28 - 10)

Preview

Carcassonne has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Valence Romans is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Carcassonne won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 68:88. (average 17:22).

Including home matches between the teams, Carcassonne won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 22:38. (average 11:19).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Carcassonne
French Pro D2
07.11.25	US Dax - Carcassonne	19:0 ✺
31.10.25	Carcassonne - Biarritz	23:23 ✺
24.10.25	FC Grenoble - Carcassonne	57:12 ✺
17.10.25	Carcassonne - Colomiers	13:15 ✺
03.10.25	Béziers - Carcassonne	31:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0.9 LTLLL
- Valence Romans Drôme Rugby
French Pro D2
07.11.25	Valence Romans Drôme - Stade Aurillacois	53:22 ✺
31.10.25	Vannes - Valence Romans Drôme	64:10 ✺
23.10.25	Valence Romans Drôme - Agen	56:17 ✺
17.10.25	Béziers - Valence Romans Drôme	29:37 ✺
03.10.25	Valence Romans Drôme - Mont-De-Marsan	35:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
09.04.21	Carcassonne - Valence Romans Drôme	22:38
18.09.20	Valence Romans Drôme - Carcassonne	32:24
27.09.19	Valence Romans Drôme - Carcassonne	18:22

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